Let’s get into our Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg Pick, Odds and Preview
Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Flyweight
Pantoja: -195 | Erceg: +145
Pantoja -5.5: -115 | Erceg +5.5: -105
Over 3.5: -160 | Under 3.5: +124
Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg Pick & Preview
In the final bout of the night, Alexandre Pantoja (27-5) can already cement himself as one of the top flyweight champions of all time if he can fend off Steve Erceg (12-1). Though Erceg proved he’s dangerous with his vicious knockout victory against Matt Schnell, jumping straight to a title bout against a proven champion in just his fourth fight appears too much to ask. Pantoja just keeps getting better, and I expect him to smother Erceg for as long as this one lasts.
Erceg was generally known for his grappling ability until his last fight. Then, he flipped his entire perception with a perfectly placed shot that put Schnell out instantly. Against Pantoja, however, Erceg shouldn’t rely on landing such a clean shot, as many of the top flyweight strikers have tried and failed at the same task.
Pantoja is underrated on the feet. In both his fights with Brandon Royval, he won many of the exchanges, even though the perception was that Royval had the edge on the feet. While Brandon Moreno out-landed Pantoja in their second fight, he can be forgiven as Moreno is one of the best flyweights of all time.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario that Erceg dominates Pantoja on the feet. Their stats are virtually identical, with Pantoja landing 4.32 significant strikes per minute on 49% efficiency compared to Erceg’s 4.57 on 48% efficiency.
Their defensive numbers are similar as well, with Pantoja absorbing 3.90 significant strikes per minute on 50% efficiency and Erceg eating 3.64 on 55% efficiency.
These numbers, however, came against a completely different sample of fighters. In Pantoja’s case, they came against champions and top contenders, while Erceg’s best win came against Matt Schnell who was ranked 35th at the time.
One can expect some meaningful regression in striking against a fighter as good as Pantoja.
Though the stand up will be important, this bout will likely be won or lost in grappling exchanges. Pantoja is dangerous, taking his opponents down 2.20 times per 15 minutes of fight time on 48% efficiency.
He seems to only be getting better as he took Moreno down six times in his belt-winning performance, and Royval eight times as he cruised to his first title defense.
This is underpinned by four of Pantoja’s 11 UFC victories coming by submission. His opponents have never found the same level of grappling success against him, as Pantoja hasn’t lost by submission. This is troubling for Erceg who has six submission victories out of his 12 professional wins, a feat which he hasn’t yet accomplished in the UFC despite facing far worse grapplers than Pantoja.
Another concern is Erceg’s inefficiency on his takedown attempts. His overall rate of success on takedowns is 30%, which is propped up heavily by his 3-4 performance against David Dvorak. Against Alessandro Costa, Erceg was denied on seven of his eight takedown attempts, and was stuffed in his only effort against Matt Schnell. By comparison, Pantoja landed his only takedown attempt against Schnell before knocking him out in the first round.
Overall, there appears to be a meaningful gap between Pantoja and Erceg’s ability. This gap will only be made wider by Pantoja’s experience fighting far more talented fighter than Erceg.
Best UFC Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg Bet & Pick: Pantoja Moneyline (-195 at DraftKings)
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