Let’s get into our Jonathan Martinez-Jose Aldo pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Jonathan Martinez-Jose Aldo Pick, Odds and Preview
Jonathan Martinez-Jose Aldo Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Martinez: -150 | Aldo: +120
Martinez -3.5: +130 | Aldo +3.5: -170
Over 2.5: -220 | Under 2.5: +170
Jonathan Martinez-Jose Aldo Pick & Preview
In another bout that sees a promising fighter try to leap into the upper part of the division, Jonathan Martinez (19-4) squares up against hometown hero, Jose Aldo (31-8). Though Martinez comes in on a hot streak, Aldo still eats up fighters that aren’t immediate title contenders. I would ride with Aldo as a slight favorite, so I see a nice edge with him as an underdog.
After Aldo’s devastating loss to Petr Yan, marking three losses in a row and five in seven, many thought we were seeing the end of his long and storied career. Yet, he was able to bounce back winning against recent title challenger Chito Vera, and perennial ranked fighters Pedro Munhoz and Rob Font.
Even in a loss to likely title challenger Merab Dvalishvili, Aldo was able to stuff all 16 of his takedown attempts while striking far more efficiently, landing 56% of his significant strikes to 38% for Dvalishvili. The main reason for Aldo’s loss was his inability to throw the necessary number of strikes to take the fight, due to Dvalishvili’s heavy pressure.
This won’t be an issue against Martinez. In 13 fights, Hernandez landed just six takedowns. Instead, the fight will likely remain entirely standing, which is the exact type of fight where Aldo is most dangerous.
Martinez’s striking is relatively high output compared to Aldo’s, as he lands 4.64 significant strikes per minute.
However, this isn’t the same level of pressure that fighters like Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski, and Dvalishvili were able to put on Aldo to stifle his chances on the feet.
There are also real questions as to how Martinez’s solid statistics, particularly his striking defense, which sits at 58%, will translate against Aldo.
His best win came against Said Nurmagomedov, who was ranked in the low twenties at the time, in a fight that saw outstruck and taken down three times. To make the jump up and fight a top tier contender like Aldo is an entirely different beast.
I see Aldo picking Martinez apart on the feet and winning either by decision with a knockdown changing the tide of the bout, or by knockout on a well-timed counter.
Best UFC Jonathan Martinez-Jose Aldo Bet & Pick: Aldo Moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)
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