Let’s get into our Anthony Smith-Vitor Petrino pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Anthony Smith-Vitor Petrino Pick, Odds and Preview
Anthony Smith-Vitor Petrino Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Smith: +385 | Petrino: -640
Smith +3.5: +210 | Petrino -3.5: -295
Over 1.5: -195 | Under 1.5: +150
Anthony Smith-Vitor Petrino Pick & Preview
The last bout with lopsided odds sees Anthony Smith (37-19) try to derail some of the hype for Vitor Petrino (11-0). Each fighter’s stats justify the odds being so heavily in favor of Petrino, but they are somewhat misleading. Smith can still fight at a high level, while Petrino has never fought a ranked opponent. Even if Petrino ultimately prevails, +385 odds for Smith are far too long in my view.
Smith has become something of a meme in the fight community over recent years, and he’s certainly not helping himself after critiquing Alex Pereira and then defending himself by calling fans stupid.
Nonetheless, he is still a solid fighter, and can perfectly be described as a gatekeeper for the higher reaches of the division.
Some may think Smith is washed, as he is 5-6 in his last 11 fights, but that’s not quite a fair assessment. His six losses came against Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, Aleksander Rakic, Magomed Ankalaev, Johnny Walker, and Khalil Rountree Jr., all of whom are in the top 10 of the division, including two champions.
In the same span, Smith beat multiple fighters looking to make the jump into the upper echelons of the division, including Ryan Spann, Jimmy Crute, and Devin Clark, as well as one of the top fighters in the division, Alexander Gustafsson.
This puts Smith in a somewhat unenviable position, as he isn’t good enough to beat the best of the best in the division, but he is good enough to stop the people who don’t belong in the title conversation.
The main question in this fight is whether Petrino is in the former camp or the latter.
Petrino certainly looks impressive so far. He lands 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time at a stunning 68% rate. This seems to especially pair well against Smith’s 48% takedown defense rate.
However, his fights came against people far below Smith’s caliber. His best wins came against Marcin Prachnio and Modestas Bukauskas, who were ranked in the mid-40s at the time they fought in a division that is wanting for depth. It’s not fair to compare these wins to the fighters Smith fought in the same period.
Further, Petrino hasn’t been too impressive as a striker, despite scoring a couple knockouts. He only lands 2.74 significant strikes per minute at a 45% success rate. The more concerning metric against a fighter with Smith’s power is that he only defends his opponents’ significant strikes at a 45% clip. Against fighters ranked in the mid-40s-to-60s, Petrino can get away with this, but against a fighter that is far stronger, it could lead to disaster.
This is too big of a jump in caliber to justify the line being so heavily in Petrino’s favor. I’m riding with Smith to quiet some of his hype.
Best UFCAnthony Smith-Vitor Petrino Bet & Pick: Anthony Smith Moneyline (+385 at DraftKings)
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