March Madness got you overwhelmed? Not to worry: UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas offers an exciting change of pace if you need a quick pivot — or to recoup some losses — from college basketball. Let’s get into our Amanda Ribas-Rose Namajunas pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Amanda Ribas-Rose Namajunas Pick, Odds and Preview
Ribas-Namajunas Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Shahbazyan: -210 | Dobson: +155
Shahbazyan -3.5: -140 | Dobson +3.5: +105
Over 2.5: +100 | Under 2.5: -130
Ribas-Namajunas Pick & Preview
The main event pairs Amanda Ribas (12-4) up against fan favorite Rose Namajunas (12-6). While support for Namajunas waned slightly after her head-scratching performance against Carla Esparza — and the even more perplexing media tour that came after it — she is still one of the biggest names in women’s MMA.
Due to her name recognition, the line is tilting in Namajunas’ favor, which doesn’t appear warranted given her recent lackluster performances.
Namajunas earned her moniker “Thug Rose” in her two title runs in the Strawweight division. That is, she had until her fight with Esparza in which she only landed 37 significant strikes over five rounds against a wrestling specialist. Her strategy in that fight was widely criticized, which led to a slew of bizarre interviews in which she passionately defended the approach.
Whether she defended the strategy or not, Namajunas was clearly in need of motivation at that time, by her own admission, which spurred the jump to Flyweight. She fought admirably in her first Flyweight bout against Manon Fiorot, but the size difference clearly showed. With their striking numbers almost equivalent, Fiorot gained the edge by landing the heavier shots.
Her previous fight didn’t come without some positive takeaways. For one, her quickness and agility allowed her to keep Fiorot to just 25% on her significant strikes. However, this didn’t translate to a high level of efficiency for Namajunas’ own striking, as she only landed 40% herself.
The Fiorot fight is important because Namajunas will have trouble in the higher weight class as a naturally smaller fighter. Where she was able to knock out the likes of Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Zhang Weili at Strawweight, translating that to larger fighters who are accustomed to heavier shots will be difficult.
The size difference could pose a major problem against Ribas, who will pressure Namajunas heavily both on the feet and with her grappling. Ribas scores around two takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time at a very strong 51% rate.
While the difference in power is a big factor when changing weight classes, perhaps the biggest change is in grappling. Namajunas will have to defend the takedown at a heavier weight than she has at any point in her career, which will take far more strength and stamina.
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Model
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Nguyen-Errens bout: SuperBook has Nguyen at outright odds of just -150, below the true odds of -158 and far below the odds at FanDuel (-188) and BetMGM (-185), making a wager on Nguyen a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95 per month, a far better deal than the $150+ our competitors charge!
Ribas won’t give Namajunas any time to breathe on the feet. She lands 4.92 significant strikes per minute, which is all the more impressive as she defends her opponent’s strikes at a 62% clip, only absorbing 3.33 significant strikes per minute. Ribas’ defensive ability could play a big part in the fight, particularly as Namajunas has been gun-shy in some of her most recent fights.
With the fight scheduled for five rounds, I expect Ribas’ pressure and power to wear Namajunas down. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one ends before the bell, but riding with the moneyline is the more prudent approach.
Best UFC Ribas-Namajunas Bet & Pick: Amanda Ribas ML +160 at DraftKings
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