You might have March Madness on the brain, but that doesn’t mean there is any lack of value on the UFC betting markets tonight. In fact, with the world distracted, there might just be more value than usual. Let’s get into our Edmen Shahbazyan-AJ Dobson pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Edmen Shahbazyan-AJ Dobson Pick, Odds and Preview
Shahbazyan-Dobson Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Shahbazyan: -210 | Dobson: +155
Shahbazyan -3.5: -140 | Dobson +3.5: +105
Over 2.5: +100 | Under 2.5: -130
Shahbazyan-Dobson Pick & Preview
Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4) looks to rebound after a slight skid. He’ll face AJ Dobson (7-2). Shahbazyan’s knockout power is well-proven, particularly against unranked opponents. Dobson’s lack of defense on the feet will likely put him in trouble, and, for that reason, I like Shahbazyan to win by knockout.
Like Gerald Meerschaert last week, Shahbazyan only really wins by one method: knockout. Of his 12 professional wins, 10 came by KO/TKO. His knockout power translated to the UFC, as four of his six wins in the Octagon were knockouts.
His knockouts don’t come on flurries of punches, as Shahbazyan has a relatively low output. He only lands 3.46 significant strikes per minute. This evidences both a high level of power and accuracy.
Shahbazyan will have plenty of opportunities to land a knockout shot in this one. Dobson’s defensive ability is questionable, as he absorbs 5.25 significant strikes per minute.
This is particularly concerning, as he only lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute. It’s always dangerous to take more damage than you dole out, but it’s particularly deadly against a knockout artist like Shahbazyan.
Typically, betting on a fighter to win by a specific method is risky at +130. However, given Shahbazyan’s high percentage of knockouts, there is only one predictable method of victory for Shahbazyan.
Taking his career percentage of knockouts out of his victories (83%) and multiplying it by the implied probability Shahbazyan wins according to the moneyline (69%) yields a probability of 57%. This is clear of the implied probability of +130 (43%).
With specialists like Meerschaert and Shahbazyan, lines on the method of victory markets are likely to be inefficient, given the three possible methods a fighter could win by. This seems to be no exception, and it’s a line well worth playing.
Best UFC Shahbazyan-Dobson Bet & Pick: Shabazyan to Win by KO/TKO/DQ +130 at DraftKings
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