Although UFC 300 looks incredible, UFC 299 is no slouch, and the final prelim fight of the night is no exception. Heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida will go head-to-head for a three-round fight. Let’s dive into to our Curtis Blaydes-Jailton Almeida pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.
Curtis Blaydes-Jailton Almeida Pick, Odds and Preview
Blaydes–Almeida Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Blaydes: -105| Almeida: -115
Blaydes -3.5: +120 | Almeida +3.5: -165
Over 1.5: -160 | Under 1.5: +124
Blaydes–Almeida Pick & Preview
In the final prelim bout, Curtis Blaydes (17-4) takes on Jailton Almeida (20-2). Blaydes is one of the most powerful heavyweights, but his takedown defense leaves a lot to be desired. This plays right into Almeida’s gameplan, in a fight I anticipate taking place in large part on the ground.
Both Blaydes and Almeida look to take their opponents down often. Blaydes attains 5.93 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, while Almeida gains 5.14 takedowns. However, Almeida has far better takedown defense, stuffing 75% of his opponent’s takedown attempts. This is far stronger than Blaydes’ 33% takedown defense rate.
Blaydes will need to show better takedown defense than he has at any point in his career to stay out of danger. Almeida has 12 professional wins by submission, four of which came in the Octagon. With Blaydes’s questionable takedown defense, this could be a real issue.
Neither fighter has a particularly high striking output, but the edge in knockout power likely slants toward Blaydes. Out of his 12 UFC victories, seven were by knockout. However, Almeida has shown an impressive ability to avoid taking damage in his six UFC fights since his time on the Contender Series.
Unbelievably, Almeida absorbed zero significant strikes in three fights and only took one significant strike in two of the other three. In his five-round decision victory against Derrick Lewis, Almeida was only hit with 20 significant strikes, the most in his time in the UFC. This is significant because Blaydes’ edge in power won’t do him much good if he can’t land anything significant. With the line even, I like riding with Almeida, potentially laddering it with the -3.5 and/or with Almeida to win by submission.
Best Blaydes–Almeida Bet & Pick: Almeida ML -115 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Model
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OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Tools & Tips
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