It’s time — UFC 300 has finally arrived, and we’ve got a loaded card from the early prelims through the main event. Let’s get into our Deiveson Figueiredo-Cody Garbrandt pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Deiveson Figueiredo-Cody Garbrandt Pick, Odds and Preview
Figueiredo-Garbrandt Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Figueiredo: -330 | Garbrandt: +230
Figueiredo -3.5: -170 | Garbrandt +3.5: +130
Over 1.5: -190 | Under 1.5: +145
Figueiredo-Garbrandt Pick & Preview
In perhaps the greatest opening fight in UFC history, Deiveson Figueiredo (22-3-1) makes his second appearance at Bantamweight against the former champ, Cody Garbrandt (14-5). Both fighters have dynamite in their hands, and I expect this one to end in fireworks.
There are essentially only two endings to a Cody Garbrandt fight: he either gets chinned brutally or blows his opponent up. Against a fighter Like Figueiredo, I don’t anticipate this changing. Figgy is powerful and can put his opponents out when given the opportunity.
Recently, Figgy has fought champions and more reserved, grappling-heavy fighters, so the openings for a knockout haven’t quite been there. Against Garbrandt, they will be. Garbrandt absorbs 3.91 significant strikes per minute, greater than the 3.06 significant strikes he lands. Figgy also takes more damage than he doles out, absorbing 3.46 significant strikes per minute against the 3.08 he lands.
While the pace of this fight won’t be quite as high as some other slugfests, both Figgy and Garbrandt don’t need many shots to put their opponents out. Of Garbrandt’s six KO victories, four took less than 20 significant strikes, with another taking 21 strikes to finish the job.
Figgy isn’t quite as quick to knock his opponents out, but only one of his four knockout victories took more than 30 strikes, and it only took 31. Figgy has a more multifaceted game, as he has a guillotine from hell, which could threaten the knockout line. Nonetheless, Garbrandt has solid takedown defense stuffing 80% of his opponent’s takedown attempts.
In Garbrandt’s 15 UFC fights, 11 ended by KO. For his part, five of Figgy’s fifteen UFC bouts ended by KO. In sum, 16 of their combined 30 fights ended in a knockout for a rate of 53%. With the implied probability of a KO sitting at around 47%, there is a slight edge here that I anticipate being wider given the style of fight likely to come.
Best UFC Figueiredo-Garbrandt Bet & Pick: Exact Method of Victory KO/TKO/DQ +110 at DraftKings
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