Let’s get into our Jack Shore-Joanderson Brito pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Jack Shore-Joanderson Brito Pick, Odds and Preview
Shore-Brito Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Shore: +145 | Brito: -195
Shore +3.5: -105 | Brito -3.5: -125
Over 1.5: -210 | Under 1.5: +160
Shore-Brito Pick & Preview
In the last fight on the prelims, Jack Shore (17-1) looks to climb his way up the featherweight rankings by going through Joanderson Brito (16-3-1). Though Brito is dangerous, Shore has a more well-rounded and versatile game that will help lead his way to victory if he can avoid getting finished early.
I am riding with Shore in this one, though there is always a chance that Brito will finish him early.
It seems like Brito doesn’t like being in the Octagon for all that long. His average fight time for his career is only six minutes and 37 seconds, which includes a bout that went all the way to a decision. His propensity to finish fights early makes him dangerous for anyone he against whom he squares up. On the other hand, Shore’s fights tend to drag into the later rounds, with him tending to wear his opponents down with his heavy pressure that comes from the takedown.
This disparity speaks to an advantage that Shore could have going into this bout. Since his time on the Contender Series, Brito’s only bout that went to decision resulted in his only UFC loss.
Without a finish early, there is concern about Brito’s ability to win a sustained fight, particularly one that stays on the feet.
There isn’t much concern about this fight remaining standing, as Shore lands 3.42 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, while Brito lands 3.40. Nonetheless, Shore appears to have an edge on the feet for the length of time that it remains standing.
Neither fighter lands at a particularly high rate, with Shore landing 3.84 significant strikes per minute and Brito landing 3.32.
When accounting for the position their strikes come in, Shore’s striking numbers look more impressive. A whopping 73% of his strikes come on the feet, compared to only 54% of Brito’s.
Shore’s 58% efficiency on significant strikes is far more impressive than Brito’s 51% when considering Shore is landing at that efficiency predominantly on the feet where he doesn’t have a dominant position. Shore also defends on the feet efficiently. He only absorbs 2.20 significant strikes per minute while defending 57% of the time.
Though Shore may have the advantage on the feet, the fight will really come down to who wins the grappling exchanges. Brito is far more efficient in his takedown attempts, landing one successfully 75% of the time compared to Shore’s 40%. However, Shore is better at defending the takedown, stuffing 79% of his opponent’s attempts as opposed to 50% or Brito.
Part of this comes from Brito’s willingness to pull guard if he sees an opportunity to submit his opponent off a takedown. This is a big risk against a grappler like Shore, as a miscalculation could give Shore a dominant position with no real benefit to Brito.
Best UFC Shore-Brito Bet & Pick: Shore Moneyline (+145 at DraftKings)
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