Let’s get into our Karolina Kowalkiewicz-Iasmin Lucindo pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz-Iasmin Lucindo Pick, Odds and Preview
Kowalkiewicz-Lucindo Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight
Kowalkiewicz: +290 | Lucindo: -440
Kowalkiewicz +3.5: +120 | Lucindo -3.5: -165
Over 2.5: -230 | Under 2.5: +175
Kowalkiewicz-Lucindo Pick & Preview
Veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-7) takes on 22-year-old Iasmin Lucindo (15-5) in the last women’s bout of the night. The books heavily favor Lucindo for her impressive grappling, but her striking is too limited for me to ride with her at such heavy odds. Kowalkiewicz’s experience and toughness will help her carry the day.
Lucindo has a bright future ahead of her. She’s going into her fourth UFC bout and in her home country, to boot. However, a bright future also implies youth, which can have its downside in a sport as mentally and physically taxing as MMA.
Kowalkiewicz, on the other hand, has a wealth of experience to rely on. She’s fought for the belt and faced off against some of the biggest names in the division, with her best win coming against Rose Namajunas. While it looked like Kowalkiewicz was well on the back side of her career when she lost five fights in a row, she bounced back and comes into this on a four-fight win streak.
Coming back from a skid like that shows both Kowalkiewicz’s toughness and her ability to change her game years into her career. To return to her winning ways, she became more aggressive on the feet. This will pay dividends against Lucindo, whose striking is questionable at best.
In her three UFC fights, Lucindo lands only 3.33 significant strikes per minute at a paltry 39% hit rate. She also absorbs around the same amount of damage, eating 3.23 significant strikes per minute. Compare this to Kowalkiewicz, who lands 5.92 significant strikes per minute at 43% efficiency and only absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute.
Lucindo’s biggest advantage will likely come in grappling exchanges. She already has a submission victory under her belt, and she lands 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. To make this more impressive, she scores a takedown on 66% of her efforts.
Kowalkiewicz showed weaknesses in her takedown defense against Yan Xiaonan, but her takedown defense has been solid throughout her career when not against a fighter of Xiaonan’s caliber. She flashes a 74% takedown defense rate, which will help her keep the fight standing where it needs to be.
If Kowalkiewicz can stuff the takedown, the difference in experience will begin to show itself more apparently. Often times, promising young fighters have a difficult time going away from their gameplan if it’s not working. Learning to adjust in the middle of a fight is a skill that can only really develop over time, as the pressure and intensity of a sparring session is not the same as a real fight, particularly on the main card.
At such long odds, I see the smartest play here as riding with Kowalkiewicz to score a stunning upset.
Best UFC Kowalkiewicz-Lucindo Bet & Pick: Kowalkiewicz Moneyline (+290 at DraftKings)
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