With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Jairzinho Rozenstruik-Shamil Gaziev pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Jairzinho Rozenstruik-Shamil Gaziev Pick, Odds and Preview
Jairzinho Rozenstruik-Shamil Gaziev Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Rozenstruik: +150 | Gaziev: -205
Rozenstruik -5.5: +155 | Gaziev +5.5: -210
Over 1.5: +135 | Under 1.5: -175
Jairzinho Rozenstruik-Shamil Gaziev Pick & Preview
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-5) faces Shamil Gaziev (12-0) in the final fight of the night. With an undefeated record, Gaziev is well-regarded as a favorite here.
Even with the odds in his favor, he is still a solid bet, as I don’t see his unbeaten streak coming to an end here.
This is a full striking match, as neither fighter has accomplished a takedown in their UFC career. Because of this, the fight will likely be decided on the feet.
Gaziev has a clear advantage in terms of output.
Where Gaziev lands 6.19 significant strikes per minute, Rozenstruik only lands 2.81.
It’s difficult to tell how much credence to put into Gaziev’s numbers, since he only has two fights in the UFC, including the Contender Series.
Nonetheless, he attained two finishes, including a knockout against formerly undefeated Martin Buday. In that fight, Buday only landed eight strikes compared to Gaziev’s 49.
While Rozenstruik has incredible knockout power, he doesn’t have the gas tank to increase his striking output to win in a long five-round fight. A prime example of this comes from Rozenstruik’s fight against Curtis Blaydes, in which he only threw sixty-eight significant strikes in the entire bout and only landed eighteen of them.
Without increasing his output, he will have to depend on a knockout in the early rounds, or else he will either be finished or lose on the cards. Interestingly, Rozenstruik hasn’t won by decision in his UFC career, so Gaziev would be best served with a more conservative approach in the early rounds before pouring it on late.
Best Jairzinho Rozenstruik-Shamil Gaziev pick: Gaziev ML -205 at DraftKings
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