The UFC rolls on with its stretch of consecutive cards until mid-April’s UFC 300. This week’s action will get underway in the UFC APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday afternoon. With several interesting fights on the card, let’s dive into the odds and picks for UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev. If you’re hungry for more action, check out the rest of our UFC articles and or our betting model’s top picks!
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Odds & Picks: Bets for Gaziev, Nurmagomedov & More
Prelim Spotlight: UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev | Eryk Anders-Jamie Pickett Pick
Anders-Pickett Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Anders: -560 | Pickett: +350
Anders -3.5: -225 | Pickett +3.5: +165
Over 2.5: -140| Under 2.5: +110
Anders-Pickett Preview & Pick
Both Eryk Anders (15-8) and Jamie Pickett (13-10) desperately need a win in the final prelim bout of the night. With such a heavy slant towards Anders, I like riding with Pickett in a bout that could be worth taking a long shot on the underdog.
With no disrespect towards Anders, he is far too inconsistent of a fighter to be a -560 favorite against anyone on the UFC roster. While Pickett comes into this one with only two wins, Anders has a losing record in his UFC career, sitting at 7-8-1.
Part of Anders’ difficulty in finding consistent success in the Octagon comes from the amount of strikes he absorbs. While he dishes out 3.56 significant strikes per minute, he eats 4.39.
This is a clear opening that Pickett can look to exploit. While he only lands 2.84 significant strikes per minute, his strategy will likely have to change coming into this one. To put it bluntly, without a win, he will likely be cut from the UFC. It’s an ugly, yet real side to the business, but it’s one that Pickett almost certainly understands.
Look for Pickett to be more aggressive than we’ve seen him in the past. While he hasn’t found much success to this point in his UFC career, a fight against Anders may be exactly what he needs to get himself back on track. I will take the long odds that we see a more aggressive and inspired Pickett in what could be his last time in the Octagon.
Best UFC Anders-Pickett Bet & Pick: Pickett ML +350 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev | Matt Schnell-Steve Erceg Pick
Schnell–Erceg Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Flyweight
Schnell: +315 | Erceg: -480
Schnell +3.5: +195 | Erceg -3.5: -270
Over 1.5: -140| Under 1.5: +110
Schnell–Erceg Preview & Pick
In the first fight of the main card, Matt Schnell (16-7) takes on Steve Erceg (11-1). It looks like the oddsmakers misevaluated Erceg’s style, as the odds for him to win by knockout are higher than for him to win by submission. Given this oversight, I like the long odds of Erceg by submission.
Schnell is a worthy grappler, gaining three of his six UFC victories by submission. However, he is not infallible, as he fell victim to a submission against Brandon Royval, losing to a guillotine choke. He will have his hands full against Erceg, who won seven of his twelve professional fights by submission.
While he hasn’t replicated the same success since entering the UFC, only winning by decision in his two bouts, Erceg should have plenty of opportunities to get back on the submission train against Schnell. With a paltry 46% takedown defense rate, Schnell gives his opponents plenty of opportunities on the ground.
It’s fair to say that Schnell may not defend the takedown as a strategic choice, hoping to induce his opponents into an area where he can submit them. He won’t want to try this strategy against Erceg, who sports a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is a functional grappler in MMA.
With Erceg landing around two takedowns per 15 minutes, he will have some opportunities to find a submission. Expect Erceg to boost his aggression when it comes to grappling given Schnell’s porous takedown defense.
Best UFC Schnell-Erceg Bet & Pick: Erceg to Win by Submission +200 at DraftKings
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UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev | Umar Nurmagomedov-Bekzat Almakhan Pick
Nurmagomedov–Almakhan Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Nurmagomedov: -1500 | Almakhan: +650
Nurmagomedov -3.5: -525 | Almakhan +3.5: +330
Over 1.5: -166 | Under 1.5: +130
Nurmagomedov–Almakhan Pick
Someone in the UFC matchmaking department has a bone to pick with Bekzat Almakhan (17-1). He enters his debut against the likely future Bantamweight champion, Umar Nurmagomedov (16-0). The books have made the moneyline functionally impossible to bet on, as Nurmagomedov is a -1500 favorite.
Fortunately, the under, which sits in the plus money, is a worthy play for this one. One thing should be very clear about the UFC: don’t bet against any Nurmagomedov. Umar is a cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov and trained with Khabib’s father, Abdulmanap, before his unfortunate passing. To put a long story short, Umar has both the skill and training to win any fight he finds himself in.
This particular bout comes against a UFC rookie in Almakhan. While Almakhan has a respectable professional record, he enters this fight both with less experience and very likely less talent. Nonetheless, Almakhan has the knockout power necessary to stop the fight in the blink of an eye, which makes the -1500 line way too risky to play.
It’s likely that Almakhan doesn’t win if he doesn’t find a knockout. This bodes well for the under, which already has good odds given Umar’s talent and aggression. In Umar’s four fights, he won three by finish, two of which came by submission. This comes from the 4.28 takedowns he gets in 15 minutes of fight time.
Umar also lands a solid 4.85 significant strikes per minute. His pressure will be a lot for Almakhan to handle in his first entrance in the Octagon. Ultimately, with odds so heavily favoring Umar, there are two likely outcomes: Umar finishes Almakhan easily or Almakhan wins with a stunning knockout. Either way, it’s hard to picture this one being drawn out to the cards.
Best UFC Nurmagomedov-Almakhan Bet & Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds +130 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev | Alex Perez-Muhammad Mokaev Pick
Perez–Mokaev Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Flyweight
Perez: +245 | Mokaev: -360
Perez +3.5: +155 | Mokaev +3.5: -210
Over 2.5: -105 | Under 2.5: -125
Perez–Mokaev Preview & Pick
In what should be a wrestling-heavy bout, Alex Perez (24-7) finds himself up against Muhammad Mokaev (11-0). While there should be a lot of time on the ground, I would take this one to end inside the bell, as it sits at -165 currently.
There is a clear tendency in Mokaev’s UFC career to this point: he grinds on people until he finds a finish late. In five fights, he has four submission victories, with three coming in the third round. Though this is usually an indication the over may be worth playing, Mokaev’s ability to wear his opponents down is not to be overlooked.
In each of the fights that made it to the third round, Mokaev amassed over eight minutes of control time. Even for the most seasoned submission defense specialist, surviving a full fight in such conditions is a daunting task.
This task isn’t any easier for Perez, who fell victim to two submissions in his previous nine UFC fights. It’s especially difficult now as Perez has only fought once in the last three years, which was a losing effort to Alexandre Pantoja. While Perez only fights the top tier of the division, Mokaev will likely be able to smother him.
If Mokaev can’t do this, there isn’t much indication he can sustain a full fight simply through striking. Mokaev only lands 1.12 significant strikes per minute, compared to Perez’s 4.67. While this is likely due to the amount of control time Mokaev usually gains, he isn’t a pure enough striker to withstand an onslaught on the feet.
In their combined fourteen UFC fights, only three went the distance, for a finish rate of 78%. With the implied probability sitting at around 62%, there is an edge to be had in this one.
Best UFC Perez-Mokaev Bet & Pick: Fight to Go to Decision: No -165 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev | Vitor Petrino-Tyson Pedro Pick
Petrino–Pedro Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Petrino: -370 | Pedro: +250
Petrino -3.5: -200 | Pedro +3.5: +150
Over 1.5: -145 | Under 1.5: +114
Petrino–Pedro Preview & Pick
In the penultimate fight of the night, Vitor Petrino (10-0) takes on Tyson Pedro (10-4). With the lines so heavily in favor of Petrino, there isn’t much to get an edge on here. Nonetheless, if you’re going to bet on this, it’s best to take Petrino by decision.
Petrino is on the rise. He has scored three straight UFC wins after his time in the Contender Series. He implements a wrestling-heavy style with 4.15 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. This will play well against Pedro who only defends the takedown at 52%.
If Petrino can attain takedowns, he can amass much-needed control time. With the potential to spend a lot of time on the ground, time will melt off the clock if Pedro can defend against the submission.
Neither fighter throws a particularly high number of strikes, with Petrino landing 3.07 significant strikes per minute and Pedro landing 3.11. Both fighters certainly have the knockout power necessary to end the fight in an instant. However, they are also both measured in their approach, as both fighters absorb less than three significant strikes per minute.
The implied probability for Petrino to win by decision sits at about 25%. This is already eight percent below his UFC career rate, as he won one of three bouts by decision. While it’s too small of a sample size to bank on too much, his finishes came later in the fight than what would be expected by a stoppage artist.
His first finish was headed directly toward a decision before Petrino found an arm triangle with 1:18 left in the fight. After that, Petrino knocked his opponent out a minute into the second round. However, the knockout came after he landed only eight significant strikes. With such a low output, he’ll have trouble ending the fight early unless he lands something flush. I expect the bout to mostly be spent on the ground with Petrino in top position. While Pedro has knockout power and can end the fight in an instant, his lack of output will most likely hurt him in the long run if he can’t knock Petrino out.
Best UFC Petrino-Pedro Bet & Pick: Petrino to Win by Decision +275 at DraftKings
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev | Jairzinho Rozenstruik-Shamil Gaziev Pick
Rozenstruik–Gaziev Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Rozenstruik: +150 | Gaziev: -205
Rozenstruik -5.5: +155 | Gaziev +5.5: -210
Over 1.5: +135 | Under 1.5: -175
Rozenstruik–Gaziev Preview & Pick
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-5) faces Shamil Gaziev (12-0) in the final fight of the night. With an undefeated record, Gaziev is well-regarded as a favorite here. Even with the odds in his favor, he is still a solid bet, as I don’t see his unbeaten streak coming to an end here.
This is a full striking match, as neither fighter has accomplished a takedown in their UFC career. Because of this, the fight will likely be decided on the feet. Gaziev has a clear advantage in terms of output. Where Gaziev lands 6.19 significant strikes per minute, Rozenstruik only lands 2.81.
It’s difficult to tell how much credence to put into Gaziev’s numbers, since he only has two fights in the UFC, including the Contender Series. Nonetheless, he attained two finishes, including a knockout against formerly undefeated Martin Buday. In that fight, Buday only landed eight strikes compared to Gaziev’s 49.
While Rozenstruik has incredible knockout power, he doesn’t have the gas tank to increase his striking output to win in a long five-round fight. A prime example of this comes from Rozenstruik’s fight against Curtis Blaydes, in which he only threw sixty-eight significant strikes in the entire bout and only landed eighteen of them.
Without increasing his output, he will have to depend on a knockout in the early rounds, or else he will either be finished or lose on the cards. Interestingly, Rozenstruik hasn’t won by decision in his UFC career, so Gaziev would be best served with a more conservative approach in the early rounds before pouring it on late.
Best UFC Rozenstruik-Gaziev Bet & Pick: Gaziev ML -205 at DraftKings
