With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Magomed Ankalaev-Johnny Walker pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Magomed Ankalaev-Johnny Walker Pick, Odds and Preview
Magomed Ankalaev-Johnny Walker Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Ankalaev: -600 | Walker: +365
Ankalaev -5.5: -370 | Walker +5.5: +255
Over 1.5: -180 | Under 1.5: +140
Magomed Ankalaev-Johnny Walker Pick & Preview
Johnny Walker’s (21-7) roller coaster career roars on in his second matchup with Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1).
The first bout between these two was ruled a no-contest after Ankalaev caught Walker with an illegal knee. The entire fight was an odd spectacle.
Walker faked getting caught with a liver shot before launching into a flying knee. He later pushed a referee and nearly started a brawl with Ankalaev after the fight was called off.
Ankalaev’s career, to a lesser degree than Walker’s, has also been unpredictable. After losing his first fight by submission, Ankalaev went on a nine-fight tear through the light heavyweight division, adding yet another name to the list of seemingly unstoppable Dagestani fighters.
He hit a minor snag in his last two fights, however, with a five-round draw against former Light Heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz and the no-contest against Walker.
It’s been a year and a half since his last decisive result..
Magomed Ankalaev-Johnny Walker
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One thing that is predictable about these fighters is that they tend to keep the fight standing. In their combined 48 professional MMA fights, these two have combined for a total of four submission victories, with just one coming in the UFC. Since entering the UFC, Ankalaev has only earned one takedown per fifteen minutes of fight time. For his part, Walker only procures a half takedown per fifteen minutes. With their respective takedown success rates, thsee fighters combine for less than four takedown attempts per three-round bout.
This aversion to grappling heavily influenced the total rounds market. You can buy the over 1.5 rounds at odds of just -166. The logic makes sense, as grappling-heavy fights tend to eat more clock and have less chance of ending with a random knockout shot than those that remain standing. However, in a five-round fight, the reliance placed on an early stoppage is likely misplaced.
For starters, Walker and Ankalaev aren’t particularly high-output strikers, landing 3.87 and 3.56 significant strikes per minute, respectively. While not paltry, they hardly compare to the output of the previous three light heavyweight champions – Alex Pereira, Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka – who land 5, 7.31 and 5.31 significant strikes per minute.
Ankalaev’s fights have grown longer as his competition gets stiffer. Before his first Walker bout, each of Ankalaev’s previous five fights went past the halfway point in the second round. Eight of Ankalaev’s eleven UFC fights went longer than seven and a half minutes for a rate of 72.7%. Out of the eight that went past the 1.5-round mark, only one ended before the halfway point of the third round, meaning 63.6% of Ankalaev’s fights went over 2.5 rounds.
Walker’s history of ending fights early certainly brought the total rounds line lower as eight of his twelve UFC fights didn’t make it out of the first round. Put together, twelve of the fighters’ combined 23 fights went past the halfway mark of the second round, 11 of which went past the halfway mark of the second. This is in the ballpark of the implied odds for the total rounds’ lines set by the books, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.
Walker won six of his eight fights that ended in the first round. Coming in as a heavy underdog, it’s unlikely that Walker will land a quick knockout like we’re used to seeing from him. The line for Walker to win by submission or knockout at any point in the fight is set at +550 with implied odds of around 15%, leaving the chances that Walker finishes the fight in the first or second round around 10%. Given that this is the exact type of victory that has skewed the data the most, it’s risky to rely on it to justify betting the under on the total rounds market.
The added two rounds give the over even more of an edge, as each fighter will have to manage their stamina to adjust to the possibility of a longer fight. In all, riding with the over 1.5 rounds at -166 and laddering it up to 2.5 is a safe bet barring a massive Walker upset.
Magomed Ankalaev-Johnny Walker Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds -166 at DraftKings & Over 2.5 Rounds +120 at DraftKings
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