Two of the NFL’s biggest storylines will collide in Kansas City tonight: the Hard Knocks Dolphins and the Taylor Swift Chiefs. Can Tua Tagovailoa can bounce back after a bad end to the season? Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift’s relationship survive a first-round playoff exit? Who knows. Anyway, let’s dive into the best Dolphins-Chiefs player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Saturday, including a pick for Travis Kelce. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Dolphins-Chiefs Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Wild Card
Dolphins-Chiefs Odds for Saturday
Odds via BetMGM
Dolphins: +180 | Chiefs: -225
Dolphins +4.5: -110 | Chiefs -4.5: -110
Over 43.5: -110 | Under 43.5: -110
Time: Saturday, Jan. 13 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Dolphins-Chiefs Player Prop Pick
Chris Jones O/U 0.25 Sacks
If you’re expecting a high-scoring quarterback duel between Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa tonight, you’re betting on this game wrong. Steady winds and freezing temperatures are in the forecast, and that should depress both offenses.
Instead, I want action on Kansas City defensive lineman Chris Jones to get a sack. He has recorded a full sack in his last three games and now faces an injury-depleted Dolphins offensive line.
When the Dolphins played the Chiefs earlier in the season, Miami still had star center Connor Williams, and Jones went without a sack. Williams’ season came to an end a few weeks ago, forcing Miami to replace Williams (and his elite 86.5 PFF grade) with Liam Eichenberg, who has allowed four sacks in 815 snaps and owns a PFF grade of 46.7.
Miami’s offensive line was supposed to feature Eichenberg at left guard and Williams at center, but with Williams out, Robert Jones has taken over at left guard with Eichenberg at center. The Dolphins have allowed eight sacks over the four games Williams has missed. Big-name defensive linemen like Quinnen Williams and Justin Madubuike both got in on the fun.
Jones is one of the NFL’s premier pass-rushing interior defensive linemen. He trails only Aaron Donald in pass-rush win rate at 20%. He ended the regular season with 10.5 sacks, recording at least a half-sack in nine of his 16 games and five of his eight home games. I trust him to take Tua Tagovailoa down tonight.
Dolphins-Chiefs Player Prop Pick: Chris Jones Over 0.25 Sacks -120 at DraftKings
Dolphins-Chiefs Model Player Prop
Travis Kelce O/U 5.5 Receptions
Look, I get it. Travis Kelce hasn’t been that good down the stretch. But we’re in the playoffs now, and it’s time for him to step up. Kelce has made 14 playoff starts with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball, and he cleared the 5.5 in 11 of those games, including the last five. If you’re thinking about playing this Travis Kelce player prop, OddsShopper Premium says it has a ton of value — at least on ESPNBet.
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!
In this case, we’re getting Kelce at +100 to record at least six receptions when the true odds of him doing so are -115. That’s enough of a difference for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $30 on this prop to secure a $30 profit. Lock this one in before the value gets bid off the board.
Dolphins-Chiefs Player Prop Pick: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions +100 at ESPNBet
Dolphins-Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
Don’t overthink it: Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in his last six postseason games. That streak is inclusive of Kansas City’s last two playoff runs. Kelce has played in 14 playoff games with Patrick Mahomes under center. Through that sample, he has 15 touchdowns, scoring at least once in 11 of those contests.
It hasn’t been the best year for Kelce — or the rest of Kansas City’s offense, for that matter — but Kelce still earns an impressive share of the team’s red-zone workload. Kelce has earned 19 targets inside the 20-yard line and 10 inside the 10. He trails only rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice in red-zone volume.
Miami’s defense has been vulnerable to touchdowns through the air all season. The Dolphins ended the regular season ranked 25th in passing touchdowns allowed per game (1.6), coughing up one per game to wide receivers and 0.4 per game to tight ends. Rice and McKinnon found the end zone against Miami back in November, but I trust Kelce to get the job done this time.
You’ll find Kelce trading at +120 to score a touchdown at PointsBet and +115 to do so at FanDuel. Most other public books have him at odds of +108 or shorter. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists him at only +104. Take advantage of the off-market price for Kelce and hope he can shake off his unimpressive regular season with a big playoff run.
Dolphins-Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Travis Kelce +120 at PointsBet
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets!
