Saturday brings forth the NBA Cup Semifinals, with the action getting underway at 5:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The stakes for these games are high, with the winners advancing to the Cup Finals, giving players the chance to earn $530,933 with a victory on Tuesday. Check out the Stokastic NBA Tools to see how Desmond Bane, Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and other rate for tonight’s action!
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Saturday, December 13th
👉 Check Out the FREE Expert Picks »
The Free Picks on Tails are your shortcuts to smarter bets … no signup, no strings. Here you will find a bunch of FREE expert picks, updated daily.
New York Knicks vs. Orlando Magic (+5.5 / 233.5)
Anthony Black: Magic vs. Knicks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 30.46 | FanDuel: 30.81
NBA DFS Rostership
DraftKings: 51.8% | FanDuel: 44.8%
DFS Salary:
DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $6,300
New York will be without key third-guard Miles McBride who suffered an ankle injury last Sunday, which kept him out of Tuesday’s game and could have him sidelined through next weekend.
Landry Shamet (shoulder) has missed the last nine games, so his absence has already been accounted for by the salary algorithms.
Orlando is of course missing Franz Wagner (leg), who is likely out until January. Fortunately Paolo Banchero is back after sitting for 10 games and he has ramped up his minutes with 20.2, 24.5 and a solid 32 on Tuesday, which should be a stepping stone to get him close to his typical 34-to-36 minutes tonight.
This is the fourth time these teams have met this season, though of course this game is in Las Vegas, so there is no homecourt advantage. The Magic won the first two tilts, with the Knickerbockers getting a victory on Sunday, though that was with Banchero playing just 24.5 minutes and no Karl-Anthony Towns for New York.
Anthony Black is currently projecting to be the most popular player on DraftKings, while ranking in the top-five on the blue site. This is buoyed by his 30-plus minutes in five of the last six games, with Tuesday’s contest being his only start in this stretch. It is important to remember that both Orlando and New York will be tightening their rotations.
In the Semifinals, four of the five starters for the Knicks played 36-plus minutes, with KAT at 31. From the bench, Mitchell Robinson was on the court whenever Towns was not, save for the last 1:13 when coach Mike Brown put in the deeeeeep reserves. Jordan Clarkson had 26.4 minutes and he is firmly in play with McBride and Shamet out. Guerchon Yabusele is best left for the single-game contests, since it looks like his role is mostly playing when Mikal Bridges is off the court.
Even with the new coaching regime, we have already seen that Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Bridges and Towns are the frenetic five who see the vast majority of minutes in crucial games. Winners of the Cup will receive $530,933, the players from the runner-up team will get $212,373 and those who lose tonight are guaranteed $106,187 — so yes, this is an important game not only for the Eastern Conference standings, but also for the key players who we have seen get fired up to help the reserves and understudies get a little extra holiday cash.
Brunson currently has the best “positive leverage” per the Stokastic Boom/Bust tool for the full four-team player pool on DraftKings. His 46.27% optimal rate is second to only Black (50.53%). On FanDuel he ranks third overall for leverage, though interestingly enough, he trails teammates Bridges and Hart in the optimal rating and Banchero who is tops on the blue site.
Jalen Suggs continues to be the key cog in both the offense and defense, even though his contributions do not always appear next to his name in the box score. Desmond Bane sees a bump in offensive opportunities without Wagner and he will be a secondary facilitator behind Black and Suggs. Wendell Carter Jr. is a neutral option, while Goga Bitadze is a wild card off the bench.
Tristan Da Silva is not particularly enticing, with his upside mostly tied to scoring and he willingly defers to others on the court. The one attribute he does bring today is as a salary saver on both DraftKings ($3,800, 38.1%) and FanDuel ($4,000, 36.7%), with dual-forward eligibility on both sites.
Victor Wembanyama: Spurs vs. Thunder
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 41.32 | FanDuel: 42.35
NBA DFS Rostership
DraftKings: 2.9% | FanDuel: 5.2%
DFS Salary:
DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $11,700
Victor Wembanyama is expected to return today, after missing the last 12 games with a strained calf. Currently the Stokastic projections have the otherworldly player for 27 minutes, which is appropriate considering the long layoff.
The Spurs have no reason to push their franchise star tonight, though he is a tough click on the DFS sites tonight, with the highest salary in the player pool. It is likely that his actual rostership ends up nearly double where things are currently sitting, with savvy gamers seeking some differentiation.
Expecting a foray to the 40-fantasy point plateau is reasonable and with a little luck from beyond the arc or with some stocks (combined steals and blocks), a 50-burger could be on the menu. If only he were 10%-to-15% cheaper or not facing the greatest defense ever assembled, there would be more strategy to consider.
Wemby’s presence impacts the entire San Antonio rotation, from a statistical sense as well as DFS salaries, which are a touch too high now for the rest of the roster. Rookie Dylan Harper, along with veterans Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes and De’Aaron Fox are likely to be in the 15%-to-20% rostership range across the DFS sites tonight. Luke Kornet takes a hit, moving back to the bench, but he does have contingent upside if Wemby is limited to 20ish minutes.
Last season, Oklahoma City lost in the Cup Finals to Milwaukee 97-81. Of course the Thunder went on to win the NBA Championship and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander earned his first MVP award. Currently OKC has a 24-1 record, with the lone loss coming on the second-leg of a road back-to-back in Portland (121-119).
Gilgeous-Alexander has stated that he and his teammates will be disappointed if they do not beat the 73 wins set by the Golden State Warriors a decade ago. This is not hubris and bluster, but the mental challenge the team has set for itself.
Isaiah Joe is the only player who is on the injured report, with Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) returning after a six-game layoff. Currently the Thunder rank fifth in scoring efficiency, with 120.5 points per 100 possessions, while on defense, their 103.3 points allowed per 100 possessions is more than a full standard deviation better than Houston (111.0) and Detroit (111.1).
Even more absurd is the 17.1 Net Rating, which is crushing the 12.7 points from last year, which was the second best of all-time, trailing only the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (13.4), the year Michael Jordan led the his team to a then all-time record of 72-10.
The downside for DFS is that this crowded rotation makes it hard to pinpoint the best fantasy plays game in and game out. Even with Jalen Williams missing 19 games, Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren have only played meaningful fourth quarter minutes in about half the matchups.
Tune into a special episode of Stokastic’s NBA Live Before Lock Show at 4:45 p.m. ET today, to get all the up to date information and analysis, with detailed thoughts on how to approach both sides of the nightcap game.
Using Portfolio EV to Find Market-Based NBA Player Prop Bets
If you’re serious about making sharp NBA DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper and the Portfolio EV tool shines.
Take a bet like De’Aaron Fox under 20.5 points tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates!
Tonight Fox is going against what is arguably the best defense ever assembled, with a never ending wave of defenders waiting for him at every level. If he drives to the hoop, he will be facing Hartenstein and Holmgren.
If he is at the top of the key it is going to be a mix of SGA and Wallace, with Luguentz Dort and Williams ready to switch off. But wait … there’s more … Alex Caruso can be employed at any time as “the cooler” and he doesn’t even start for the stacked Thunder!
Looking at the bona fides, Williams was Second-Team All-NBA Defense last year, with Dort earning First-Team honors. In the 2022-23 season, Caruso was First-Team All-NBA Defense and the following season he garnered Second-Team accolades.
The return of Wembanyama and the daunting opposition tonight have Fox projecting for 32.6 minutes of run, with 19.8 points. That makes the -110 line on Unibet and other operators pop, with a 6.4% positive expected ROI, compared to the -126 “true odds” and it is far superior to the various operators who have lowered the target threshold to 19.5 and in some cases 18.5 with NEGATIVE 3.2% to 13.2% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
