With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Michael Johnson-Darrius Flowers pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Michael Johnson-Darrius Flowers Pick, Odds and Preview
Michael Johnson-Darrius Flowers Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Johnson: -145 | Flowers: +115
Johnson -3.5: -105 | Flowers +3.5: -125
Over 1.5: -120 | Under 1.5: -110
Michael Johnson-Darrius Flowers Pick & Preview
Michael Johnson (22-19) enters his fight with Darrius Flowers (12-6-1) in need of a win. But because Flowers’ biggest weakness is something that Johnson probably won’t be able to exploit, fading him despite his status as the favorite for this one should prove sharp.
Johnson is on an unfortunate streak of late. He comes into this fight winning only four of his previous 15 matches, which dates back to 2015.
While the beginning of this nearly decades-long skid saw Johnson lose to some of the best fighters in the world, including Khabib Nurmagomedov, Beneil Dariush and Justin Gaethje, the caliber of opponents he fought in his most recent losses is not on that same level.
He can still show flashes of the top-level fighter he began his career as, but there is nothing in his recent work that indicates he should be favored against anybody.
Flowers is a dangerous opponent with incredible stopping power. Of his 12 professional wins, eight have come by knockout.
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He applies heavy pressure in his striking, landing 4.19 significant strikes per minute, which could give Johnson trouble, especially if Flowers can land a heavy one. All it takes for Flowers to stop the fight is one opening, so Johnson will need to be buttoned up throughout the entire fight just to avoid getting finished.
Johnson’s losses, even lately, have not consistently come via knockout, but his last fight against Diego Ferreira showed he can still certainly be cracked. In all, three of his losses have been by KO, with most of the remaining being decisions.
Flowers’ opponents found most of their success by taking advantage of his grappling. Out of his six professional losses, five have come by submission. However, Johnson probably can’t exploit that weakness. Over his UFC career, Johnson averages 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Even more astounding is that he only ever attempted one submission in his 28 UFC fights, which was a desperate attempt against Khabib Nurmagomedov in a fight he would go on to lose by submission. He still has yet to secure a submission victory in his 41-fight professional career.
While Flowers looked shaky in his UFC debut, his opponent, Jake Matthews, is a difficult, experienced fighter who would be tough for any first-time fighter to take on. Given Johnson’s form of late, I suspect this will be a sizable step down in competition for Flowers relative to his last fight. Since Johnson hasn’t been able to consistently put wins together over an almost 10-year span, Flowers is the sharper side here.
Best UFC Michael Johnson-Darrius Flowers Pick: Darrius Flowers ML +115 at DraftKings
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