With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Rodolfo Vieira-Armen Petrosyan pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Rodolfo Vieira-Armen Petrosyan Pick, Odds and Preview
Rodolfo Vieira-Armen Petrosyan Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Vieira: -110 | Petrosyan: -110
Vieira -3.5: -125 | Petrosyan +3.5: -105
Over 2.5: +135 | Under 2.5: -175
Rodolfo Vieira-Armen Petrosyan Pick & Preview
In the first bout of the main card, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist Rodolfo Vieira (9-2) takes on Armen Petrosyan (9-2) in a fight that will likely turn on whether it mostly remains standing or goes to the ground.
I suspect we’ll see the latter outcome, which favors Vieira.
Given Vieira’s pressure with takedowns, and Petrosyan’s difficulties defending, Vieira will likely have plenty of opportunity to procure a submission as he has done so often in his career.
A disparity between fighting styles defines this bout. Petrosyan has a Muay Thai background and looks to wear his opponents down through technical striking. In his time in the UFC, Petrosyan has gone to decision in each of his four fights, winning three of them.
While he maintains heavy pressure on the feet, landing 5.97 significant strikes per minute, he virtually never engages in grappling, only procuring 0.23 takedowns in fifteen minutes of fight time.
OddsShopper Premium has identified this bet from the prelims of UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer as a +EV pick due to the odds disparity between SuperBook and the rest of the market. For more picks, including picks for the NBA and other sports, subscribe today!
Don’t expect that to change in this fight, as Vieira is dangerous on the ground. He boasts a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and it shows in his MMA career, with eight of his eleven bouts ending in a submission victory. His only other victory came by knockout, and his two losses came via decision and submission. With such prowess on the ground, Vieira attempts takedowns at a very high rate. He takes his opponents down 3.7 times per 15 minutes, but because he has only secured a takedown 25% of the time, he averages about 14.8 takedown attempts per fight.
Vieira’s grappling-heavy style gives him an advantage over Petrosyan, who struggles to defend takedowns. In Petrosyan’s only UFC loss, he was taken down four times and controlled for over 10 of the 15 minutes of fight time. He only defends the takedown at a 36% rate and was taken down more than once in four of his five fights, including his fight in Dana White’s Contender Series. The only fight in which he wasn’t taken down came against Christian Leroy Duncan, who has not even attempted a takedown in his UFC career.
Given the holes in Petrosyan’s game, Vieira should have plenty of opportunities to secure a submission. As nearly all of his wins have come by submission, the oddsmakers seem to have overvalued the potential he wins by knockout or decision when setting his line. The odds for Vieira to win by submission sit at only +165, good for an implied probability of 37%, which is a line well worth riding.
Best UFC Rodolfo Vieira-Armen Petrosyan Pick: Vieira by Submission +165 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s UFC Betting Tools & Tips
Looking for more UFC predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down every fight, so make sure to check out the rest of our MMA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
