After a thrilling UFC 300 card, the UFC returns following a week off for another Fight Night card at the APEX. Let’s get into our Rani Yahya–Victor Henry pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Rani Yahya-Victor Henry Pick, Odds and Preview
Yahya–Henry Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Yahya: +300 | Henry: -460
Yahya +3.5: +150 | Henry -3.5: -200
Over 2.5: -140 | Under 2.5: +110
Yahya–Henry Pick & Preview
For the final prelim bout of the night, bettors should expect a longer effort for both fighters in what is expected to be a lopsided win for Victor Henry (23-6) over Rani Yahya (28-11-1). I have the over 2.5 rounds in this one, which I am laddering with the fight to go the distance.
This is one of the more lopsided moneylines for the night. With Henry trading as a -460 favorite, bookmakers give him an implied probability of around 82% to win. Although he lands an absurd 8.3 significant strikes per minute, each of his three decisive fights (excluding a no-contest for a low blow) went to the cards.
Yahya comes into this fight with essentially just one way to finish it: by submission. He only lands 1.6 significant strikes per minute and has never scored a knockout in his 26 UFC fights (including WEC fights before the merger).
Henry should be able to avoid finding himself in danger of getting submitted, as he defends the takedown at a 78% clip which compares favorably to Yahya’s 33% success rate on his attempted takedowns.
Further, Henry has yet to attempt a takedown, which means that Yahya won’t be able to pull guard and force Henry into danger of falling into a submission from the top or getting reversed into a worse position. This bodes well for the over, as Yahya’s chances of finishing the fight before the bell will likely be neutralized.
Better for the over is that Yahya’s losses generally draw out longer than his wins. Of his eight losses, six went over 2.5 rounds (75%). Combined with Henry’s wins, the over has hit eight out of 10 times (80%).
Even weighting for the implied probability that Henry wins, the chances the fight goes over sits around 66%, well clear of the 58% implied probability for the over.
Further, even taking their combined fights, the over hit in 18 of 29 bouts (62%). Put simply, both Henry and Yahya have a high tendency to go deep into fights.
Though Yahya’s average fight time clocks in under 10 minutes, it’s skewed heavily by first-round submissions. His median fight time sits at 14 minutes and 19 seconds, which reflects the propensity for his fights to drag into the later rounds.
Best UFC Yahya–Henry Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds -140 at DraftKings
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