The UFC returns after an awesome UFC 300 card with a somewhat underwhelming Fight Night, but we’ve at least got UFC 301 from Brazil right around the corner — and there’s plenty of edge to be found tonight. Let’s get into our Tim Means-Uros Medic pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Tim Means-Uros Medic Pick, Odds and Preview
Means-Medic Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Means: +230 | Medic: -330
Means +3.5: +150 | Medic -3.5: -200
Over 1.5: -145 | Under 1.5: +114
Means-Medic Pick & Preview
In the first fight on the main card, Tim Means (33-15-1) looks to silence some of the hype surrounding Uros Medic (9-2). The odds seemingly anticipate a quick Medic victory, which seems somewhat unjustified due to each fighter’s average length of fight. I’m playing the over in this one.
On average, Means’ fights go longer than Medic’s. Means has an average fight time of 10:08 over his 28 UFC bouts, while Medic has an average fight time of 6:18. While an average Medic fight would hit the under 1.5 rounds if the length holds true, the odds aren’t that simple.
The implied probability the fight goes under 1.5 rounds sits at 46.7%. Looking only at Medic’s fights, three of six went under 1.5 rounds, which seems to give us a slight edge for the under. Even looking at just his wins, two of four went under, yielding the same slight edge.
However, with Means’ fights usually lasting longer, the under being set near a pick‘em seems to anticipate a Medic victory. This is supported by the -360 line in favor of Medic. If this line is to be believed, Medic has around a 77% chance of coming away with the victory. Multiplying this by the 50% that his victories went under yields a 38.5% chance he wins in the first round and a half.
What’s worse for this line is that Means doesn’t go down easy. In his 15 UFC losses, he was finished in under 1.5 rounds only four times (26%). Combining Means’ losses with Medic’s wins, only six of 19 fights went under 1.5 rounds (32%).
On the flip side, Means is relatively efficient at finishing his opponents. Six of his 13 victories came under 1.5 rounds (46%). However, given the implied probability he wins sits at just 23%, weighting the odds to account for this yields an 11% chance this outcome happens. Combining Medic’s losses, the odds the under hits in a Means win is 50%.
In total, only 13 of their combined 34 fights went under (38%). That the odds for the under increase with a Means win and decrease with a Means loss is good for the over, given the expectation that Medic wins handily.
Best UFC Means-Medic Bet & Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds -145 at DraftKings
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