The UFC will be heading to TMobile Arena in Las Vegas for UFC 279 with a rare main event that does not have a title on the line. Khamzat Chimaev will take on Nate Diaz which will be the UFC’s first non-title fight main event since Conor McGregor took on Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in January of 2020. Let’s dive into the MMA betting odds and get into a few of the best UFC 279 predictions for the Chimaev vs. Diaz fight card on Saturday, Sept. 10.
UFC 279 Predictions: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz Picks
Li Jingliang vs Tony Ferguson Prediction
Moving up to welterweight since he won The Ultimate Fighter 13 in 2011, Tony Ferguson will take on Li Jingliang.
Ferguson is on a four-fight losing streak, the longest of career, however he has faced a murderer’s row at lightweight with losses to Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush and Michael Chandler. The Gaethje fight is probably the most important because he took a career-altering beating in that fight and has not really seemed the same since. Against Oliveira and Dariush, the problem was he just could not stop the takedown.
Chandler has one of best knockouts in MMA history against Ferguson so the durability question has come into focus.
Will moving up to 170 help? Those questions will be answered this weekend.
Ferguson will be taking on Jingliang, who is a tough fight for anyone. Jingliang has won two of his last three fights, both by finish, and his one loss — to headliner Khamzat Chimaev — ended in a first-round submission.
Jingliang lands 1.27 takedowns per 15 minutes, something he make look to take advantage of as Ferguson only defends takedowns at a 66% clip, however in his last four fights he has been defending at a 30% clip, only defending three of 10.
Ferguson is extremely difficult to finish on the mat as we saw in the Oliveira fight so Jingliang does not have much submission equity in this fight. On the feet, both fighters have the power to hurt each other and neither will back down.
Over the course of three rounds even if the fight hits the mat for a period of time, someone is going to get hurt on the feet. Betting under 2.5 rounds may get you a better price, but getting the full fight at -132 is a price bettors should be comfortable with.
Best UFC 279 Betting Prediction: Jingliang/Ferguson Fight Does Not Go To Decision -132(FanDuel)
Darian Weeks vs Yohan Lainesse Prediction
In the curtain-jerker, we have a welterweight matchup between Darian Weeks and Yohan Lainesse.
Both of these fighters will be looking for their first UFC win on Saturday as they are a combined 0-3 in the UFC.
Lainesse won his Dana White Contender Series fight by first round knockout but ran out of gas in his UFC debut against Gabe Green. Lainesse knocked Green down in the second round and emptied the tank, but could not get Green out of there and was exhausted. Green recovered and got Lainesse out of there. Lainesse’s cardio will definitely be a question mark coming into this fight but his power and skills certainly won’t be.
On the opposite side, Weeks is coming off two decision losses in the UFC to Bryan Barberena and Ian Garry. The Barberena fight was a wild back-and-forth fight that Barberena squeaked out. The Garry fight was fairly unimpressive.
Both of these fighters are very hittable but Lainesse has much more power. Weeks absorbs 6.07 significant strikes per minute, a number that if continued he will get knocked out.
It would not be surprising to see either fighter shoot for takedowns and the fight could hit the mat for extended periods of time.
It is a bit surprising to see Weeks have better inside the distance props but it is probably stemming from Lainesse being a finish or be finished fighter.
All things being equal this fight should be a coinflip at worst so getting dog money on Lainesse it very attractive to the bettors.
Best UFC 279 Betting Prediction: Yohan Lainesse +114(FanDuel)
