It’s time to release our UFC 291 predictions. Using industry-leading tools, data and best UFC 291 odds, let’s get on with it by providing our Tony Ferguson-Bobby Green pick and prediction.
In the men’s lightweight division, Tony Ferguson will take on Bobby Green as a +270 underdog. In a true fall from grace, Ferguson has now lost five straight after initially challenging Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight title in May of 2020. He most recently lost to Nate Diaz via submission in September of last year.
Green had a checkered year. After losing to Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober, he fought to a no-contest against Jared Gordon due to a clash of heads. Green also faced a six-month USADA suspension within that period, but he now returns as a massive favorite over Ferguson.
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UFC 291 Predictions: Tony Ferguson-Bobby Green Pick
Tony Ferguson-Bobby Green Odds
Tony Ferguson: +270 | Bobby Green: -350
Starting with Tony Ferguson, the UFC veteran originally comes from a wrestling background, but he has evolved into a pure striker over the years. He averages 5.07 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.95. On the mat, he lands 0.44 takedowns per bout while defending them at 66%. Ferguson previously held one of the most impressive win streaks in the division, but he has now been outstruck in each of his last five fights. At 25-8, Ferguson has 12 knockouts and eight submissions. However, his durability and defense have become major issues.
Bobby Green also comes from a wrestling background. However, he too has leaned into his striking within the UFC. On the feet, he lands 5.97 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.67. He lands 1.28 takedowns per bout while defending them at 72%. Green has a professional record of 29-14-1, with a no-contest. This record includes 10 knockouts and eight submission victories.
This is an extremely tough fight to handicap. Both fighters have been losing to the division’s elite at this point, and many have completely written off Ferguson despite his body of work being not too different from Green’s. Green deserves to be a favorite as the fresher fighter. However, a -350 tag looks a bit absurd. Ferguson at +270 will be the official pick.
