At UFC Fight Night, Ailin Perez kicks off UFC Fight Night against Ashlee Evans-Smith as a -145 favorite. In this post, we will look at some Ailin Perez-Ashlee Evans-Smith picks and make a prediction for the fight.
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UFC Fight Night: Ailin Perez-Ashlee Evans-Smith Pick and Odds
Ailin Perez vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith Odds
Ailin Perez: -145 | Ashlee Evans-Smith: +120
Perez has one UFC fight under her belt. She lost her debut to Stephanie Egger by submission, putting her official record at 7-2. On the comeback, Evans-Smith returns to the Octagon after nearly three years away. She served a 14-month suspension for a positive drug test within that time. Evans-Smith currently is 3-5 in the UFC and most recently lost to Norma Dumont in November of 2020.
Perez is known primarily for her striking, but she has ground game. Her competition is weak, so it is tough to parse through her statistics. In her first bout, she landed 16 strikes while absorbing 15 behind 31% striking defense. She also landed a takedown but allowed two in the process of getting submitted. In her career, she has four knockouts and one submission in seven professional wins.
Now 36, Evans-Smith will look to right the ship after two straight losses. She works primarily as a striker and has battled the much tougher competition. She lands 4.54 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.69. However, her 55% striking defense looks much sharper than Perez’s. On the ground, she lands 1.1 takedowns per bout at 23% accuracy. Evans-Smith defends them at 66%, meaning this fight likely will play out on the feet. Of her six wins, three have come via knockout.
It is tough to gauge what Evans-Smith will look like after so many years away. Perez has the skills to compete at a UFC level, but she has yet to do so within the Octagon. With Evans-Smith coming in at +120, throwing a dart on the veteran makes the most sense here.
