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UFC Fight Night Odds: Alexa Grasso-Valentina Shevchenko Pick and Prediction

Using the latest UFC Fight Night odds, as well as industry-leading tools, we’re set to make our Alexa Grasso-Valentina Shevchenko pick and prediction.

Headlining this UFC Fight Night, Valentina Shevchenko takes on Alex Grasso in a title rematch in the women’s flyweight division as a -163 favorite. Shevchenko lost their last fight after winning her nine previous bouts at flyweight. Grasso is the underdog despite the head-to-head victory and a five-fight winning streak of her own.

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Alexa Grasso-Valentina Shevchenko Pick and Prediction

Alexa Grasso-Valentina Shevchenko Odds

Alexa Grasso: Opened +135, Now +136 | Valentina Shevchenko: Opened -165, Now -162

Shevchenko dominated Grasso until she attempted a spinning attack, leading to her own demise. The spinning strike allowed Grasso to grab her back and find a submission in the fourth round. Known as one of the best strikers in women’s MMA, Shevchenko has a 23-4 record with eight knockouts and seven submissions. Other than Grasso, two of her other losses came up a weight class to Amanda Nunes. Shevchenko lands 3.29 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.99 behind 63% striking defense. However, she has developed a solid ground game, scoring six takedowns over her last two fights. She averages 2.57 takedowns per bout while defending them at 72%. Most recently, she took Grasso down four times, which could be her easiest path to victory.

Grasso also has a striking background. She has a 16-3 professional record featuring four knockouts and a pair of submissions. Her three losses came against Felice Herrig, Tatiana Suarez and Carla Esparza. Grasso lands 4.88 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.07 behind 59% striking defense. The champion only averages 0.38 takedowns per bout while defending them at 61%. Takedowns have been a major weakness for Grasso, which projects to be the case again.

After winning 90% of their previous fight before an ill-advised spinning attack, Shevchenko has a generous price tag. At only -162, she should be considered one of the top betting values on this card.

Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Valentina Shevchenko -162

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Matt Gajewski

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