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UFC Fight Night Odds: Fernando Padilla-Kyle Nelson Pick and Prediction

Using the latest UFC Fight Night odds, as well as industry-leading tools, we’re set to make our Fernando Padilla-Kyle Nelson pick and prediction.

In the men’s featherweight division, Fernando Padilla takes on Kyle Nelson as a -250 favorite to kick off the main card. Now 1-0 in the UFC, Padilla knocked out Julian Erosa in the first round back in April, while Nelson earned a decision victory last time out against Blake Bilder in June of this year.

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Fernando Padilla-Kyle Nelson Pick and Prediction

Fernando Padilla-Kyle Nelson Odds

Fernando Padilla: Opened -250 | Kyle Nelson: Opened +200, Now +205

Padilla has an impressive 15-4 professional record featuring five knockouts and eight submissions. He has some solid regional fights under his belt, including Dan Ige, Darrick Minner and former UFC fighter Spike Carlyle. Padilla does not have much of a statistical sample to evaluate, but he out-landed Erosa 20-15 before earning a knockdown and the subsequent victory. He appears to have a well-rounded skill set that has held up against quality competition on the regional scene.

Nelson has a 14-5 record with five knockouts and four submissions to his name. In his losses, he has been knocked out twice and submitted once. His tenure in the UFC has been especially rocky with a 2-4-1 record, defeating only Bilder and Marco Polo Reyes. With that said, he has fought pretty good competition to this point. Nelson lands 3.06 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.52 behind 48% striking defense. He also averages 1.37 takedowns per bout while defending them at 71%.

This should be one of the more competitive fights on the card, but the odds do not see it that way. Padilla is the rightful favorite, but -250 is too wide a margin. For that reason, playing Nelson at +205 has some value.

Best UFC Fight Night Pick: Kyle Nelson +205

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