Victor Martinez-Tom Nolan Pick, Odds and Preview

Martinez–Nolan Odds

Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Martinez: +340 | Nolan: -440
Martinez +3.5: +255 | Nolan -3.5: -370
Over 1.5: +110 | Under 1.5: -140

Martinez–Nolan Pick & Preview

For the last fight on the prelims, Victor Martinez (13-5) looks to shock the world as a heavy underdog against Tom Nolan (6-1). With such long odds and little meaningful data on each fighter, this is a fight to avoid. However, if you find a need to bet on this one, ride with Martinez as the underdog, given Nolan’s poor performance in his last fight.

On the flip side, the same commentators remark how fast and dynamic Tom Nolan looks, without much attention to the fact he was blown up by Nikolas Motta, who came into that fight with a 2-2 record landing only 33% of his significant strikes. Though Motta may be a more dynamic striker than Martinez, pinning Nolan as a -520 favorite is a headscratcher.

There are two main arguments for Nolan winning this fight. The first is the eye test. If you remove the fight against Motta, Nolan appears to have the edge in speed and ferocity on the feet compared to Martinez.

The other argument is pedigree prior to coming into the UFC, with Martinez having a longer journey in the regional scene as opposed to Nolan. However, dinging Martinez for this, when his last loss in the regional scene came in 2016 seems unfair.

Neither of these edges are meaningful enough, in my view, to justify setting a line with the implied probability of a Nolan victory sitting over 75%. With little data to go off of, there isn’t really an edge to find here.