UFC 300 has arrived, and that means it’s time to get some bets down. Let’s dive into our Zhang Weili-Yan Xiaonan pick, odds and preview, breaking down one spot bettors should plan to exploit for UFC 300. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Zhang Weili-Yan Xiaonan Pick, Odds and Preview
Weili–Xiaonan Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight
Weili: -540 | Xiaonan: +340
Weili -5.5: -250 | Xiaonan +5.5: +180
Over 3.5: -130 | Under 3.5: +100
Weili–Xiaonan Pick & Preview
The Co-Main event sees the first-ever UFC title fight between two fighters from China, as Zhang Weili (24-3) looks to defend her belt against Yan Xiaonan (18-3). The market seems to rate this fight efficiently, and the -540 odds for Zhang are a bit too much for me to ride with.
I would suggest that bettors simply enjoy this fight, but for those who feel the need to bet on it, the under 3.5 rounds would be the best play with Zhang expected to dominate.
Yan is making her first title appearance at UFC 300. Though she fought in a main event once before against Mackenzie Dern, she hasn’t been subjected to this level of pressure before. It doesn’t help that this is Zhang’s seventh title fight. These conditions can cause some fighters to melt and others to rise to the occasion by cementing themselves at the top of the game. The odds clearly indicate Yan is expected to fall into the former category, not the latter.
This assessment is a fair one, as Zhang seems to have the edge in both striking and grappling. Zhang lands 5.94 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy while only absorbing 3.44 significant strikes per minute, defending 53% of the time. She also attains 2.29 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Yan is close but falls short in almost all these categories, landing 5.55 significant strikes per minute at a 44% success rate. She has comparable strike defense, absorbing 3.56 significant strikes per minute defending strongly at a 61% rate.
The issue Yan will have in this one, beyond the experience gap, comes from Zhang’s grappling ability. If Yan can win exchanges on the feet, Zhang can look to take the fight to the ground or tie her up in the clinch to get an edge. There isn’t any indication Yan can do the same.
Further, Zhang has knockout power and dangerous submission grappling, as she finished five of her ten UFC opponents. Yan, on the other hand, only got her first submission victory in her last bout. The multi-faceted approach Zhang can employ should help carry the day.
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Yusuff-Lopes bout: SuperBook has the under 2.5 at odds of just -145, below the true odds of -154 and far below the odds at Pinnacle, a sharp book, making a wager on the under a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95!
The moneyline is simply too skewed to bet on comfortably. Betting $100 on Zhang to win would only net a profit of around $18, which is far too small for such a risk. Even though I like Zhang in this one, the unpredictable nature of the UFC makes this a risk not worth taking. Even the -5.5 spread is skewed heavily in Zhang’s favor at -225. The only bet I would consider touching is the under 3.5, and even this relies heavily on Zhang winning the fight.
Put simply, Yan’s fights go to decision. Only two of her 10 fights ended before the final bell, one of which was a win and the other a loss. For the under to hit, it almost has to come from a Zhang knockout or submission. This is certainly possible, as half of Zhang’s fights finished in the first or second round, but to have an edge on the +120 line for the under 3.5, a bettor has to rely on Zhang winning as a near certainty. The implied probability Zhang wins sits at 85%. For bettors that are willing to rely on this. The under may be a worthwhile play. However, sitting this one out seems to be the best play.
Best UFC Weili-Xiaonan Bet & Pick: Under 3.5 +100 at DraftKings
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