I hope you read last week’s column! Those who tailed Kyle Busch at 11-1 scored not only some closing line value (CLV), as his price ticked down to 10-1 before the race, but also a nice payday. The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400 this Sunday, March 5, and the race is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Our expert will break down the betting odds to identify the top NASCAR bets and make his predictions for this weekend’s action. Tyler Reddick’s outright odds make him stand out as a value bet early this week.
Now that the regular season is in full swing, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
Best NASCAR Bets & Expert Prediction Pennzoil 400 | March 5
Can Tyler Reddick Turn His Season Around?
Few drivers have suffered from as much bad luck as Tyler Reddick has this year. He started the campaign with a crash at Daytona and followed it up with another crash at Auto Club. Neither incident was his fault. He didn’t get a chance to showcase his talents in either event, so the books have forgotten about him with the number they have posted for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400. They’re in for a rude awakening.
Reddick impressed at smooth, high-speed intermediate tracks last year, especially Las Vegas. He recorded an average finish of 6.5 between two races in Vegas last year and started on the pole for the October race. Reddick won at another high-speed intermediate, Texas, and tallied one win, three top-5s and 183 laps led across seven comparator events (Las Vegas (2x), Kansas (2x), Charlotte, Michigan and Texas).
Unfortunately, Reddick’s No. 8 Chevrolet lacked the raw speed necessary for him to dominate across those tracks — but his No. 45 Toyota might just have it. 23XI Racing swept Kansas last year and nearly won Michigan. Then driving the No. 45, Bubba Wallace also looked on track to win at Las Vegas last October before crashing out. He had led 29 laps and won the first stage before a race-ending incident with Kyle Larson while racing for fifth place.
Reddick opened at 20-1 at Caesars Sportsbook. He is somehow still available at that price. DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook opened Reddick’s outright line at a much more reasonable 15-1. Readers yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the house up to $1,250!
Best NASCAR Bet: Tyler Reddick 20-1 for 0.25 Unit at Caesars
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Will Ross Chastain Find Victory Lane?
Few drivers had more speed than Ross Chastain did last week. He drove his No. 1 Chevrolet to a race-high 91 laps led and a third-place finish after sweeping both stages. It wasn’t the result he wanted, but he proved that Trackhouse Racing’s stunning 2022 campaign wasn’t a fluke. He has opened with remarkably short odds for this weekend’s event (8-1), but that number isn’t far off from the 9-1 I anticipated. Kyle Busch (6-1) and Kyle Larson (7-1) have shorter odds.
If Reddick impressed at Las Vegas and its comparators last year, Chastain stunned. He recorded an average finish of 2.5 at this track and scored two top-5s and four top-10s across seven comparator events. He led a whopping 338 laps at high-speed intermediates, 44.7% of which came in Vegas — good for the most laps led in both events. Chastain also led at least one lap in six of the seven comparator races.
Chastain is yet to find victory lane at a high-speed intermediate in the Cup Series, but he has done so at lower levels. He won here in Xfinity Series while driving the No. 42 Chevrolet for Chip Ganassi Racing back in 2018. He also won last year’s Truck Series race at Charlotte in the Neice Motorsports’ No. 41 Chevrolet and the 2019 Truck Series race at Kansas in Neice Motorsports’ No. 45 Chevrolet. The 8-1 is still on the board at DraftKings, and readers who are yet to register there can score $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best NASCAR Bet: Ross Chastain 8-1 for 0.3 Unit at DraftKings