After a great weekend at Charlotte, we had a not-so-great weekend at Gateway. Alex Bowman, our full-unit top-10 pick at +125, was running eighth before he pitted for a late-race caution. He then suffered a mechanical failure on the final restart. Fun stuff. At least Insider Access cashed in on Michael McDowell’s top 10 at 12-1. The Cup Series now heads to California for a road course this weekend. Let’s dive into the top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for Sunday’s Toyota/SaveMart 350 at Sonoma, which include Michael McDowell.
I handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and you can read about my bets here. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.
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Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the Toyota/SaveMart 350 at Sonoma
Is Front Row Motorsports Still Underrated?
Since the beginning of the NextGen era, Front Row Motorsports has racked up a whopping six top-10s in seven road course events. While they are a two-car team, so that is technically a 14-start sample, those remain impressive results. They even include a top 10 at the Circuit of the Americas this year.
Michael McDowell, a former sports car racer, has been exceptional at road courses, especially lately. He scored four top-10s at road courses last year in his No. 34 Ford. McDowell may not have the same success this season, but we’ve only seen one road course race so far, which came at COTA. Although McDowell failed to get a top-10 result, his teammate, Todd Gilliland, did so.
Unfortunately for Gilliland, Zane Smith will take over the No. 38 Ford at Sonoma Raceway. Smith, like McDowell, is an exceptional road course driver. He has made four road course starts in the Truck Series since last year and owns two wins and two runner-up finishes. Smith has already piloted the No. 38 Ford to a top 10 this season in the Cup Series, so I’m willing to trust him this weekend.
Best NASCAR Top 10 Bet: Michael McDowell +130 for 0.58 Units at BetMGM
Best NASCAR Top 10 Bet: Zane Smith +900 for 0.17 Units at BetMGM
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Where is the Respect for Martin Truex Jr?
The winningest active driver at Sonoma, Martin Truex Jr., finds himself as a pretty sizeable underdog to Kevin Harvick on the matchup markets. That’s likely because the Toyota camp has struggled at road courses since the implementation of the NextGen car, but with Tyler Reddick winning at COTA, I expect Truex to benefit from some intra-manufacturer collaboration.
Since 2013, Truex has three wins and five top 5s at Sonoma in nine starts. Harvick has one win and four top 5s. Truex finished ahead of him in six of those nine events as well. It is absurd to see Truex with outright odds as long as 31-1 in some places (which is no longer on the board, but members of OddsShopper Insider Access got it!), and I’m eager to get some exposure to him on multiple markets.
We can buy Truex at odds of +105 (48.8%) to finish ahead of Harvick. While this play would benefit substantially from the Toyota camp making mass improvements, it doesn’t require that to hit — Truex could still easily pilot a mid-pack No. 19 Toyota to a better finish than Harvick’s No. 4 Ford. If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM, you can get first bet insurance worth up to $1,000, which is a great way to minimize the risk on your Toyota/SaveMart 350 bets.
Best NASCAR Matchup Prop Bet: Martin Truex Jr. vs. Kevin Harvick +105 for 0.5 Units at BetMGM
