After a thrilling end to the Round of 12, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway as the Round of 8 gets underway. Defending champion Kyle Larson was eliminated from championship contention last round, as were Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez and Alex Bowman. With the South Point 400 odds released, bettors looking for a positive return on investment should tail these South Point 400 picks and predictions by backing Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe on Sunday afternoon.
2022 NASCAR South Point 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions
NASCAR South Point 400 Betting Odds
Christopher Bell To Win | +850 (0.25 Unit) at PointsBet
This should be a buy-low spot for Christopher Bell, but his team made an aggressive late-race strategy call last weekend and won the race at the Charlotte Roval. Bell and the Toyota camp hadn't been great on road courses this year, but they've consistently shown speed at 1.5-mile, low tire wear intermediates like Las Vegas. While Las Vegas' surface has aged and has started to show signs of wear, the track is nowhere near high tire wear tracks like Darlington.
Bell has dominated at similar tracks this season. He started on the pole and finished 10th at the first Las Vegas race back in March. But more recently, Bell scored a third-place finish at Kansas after leading 12 laps and a 26th-place finish at Michigan after leading 31 laps. Back in the spring, Bell finished fifth in both Charlotte and the first Kansas race. Bell earned two poles and had an average starting position of 2.2 across the five highlighted events. He blew a tire early at Texas Motor Speedway last round after qualifying poorly, but both that Texas race and the All-Star Race went disproportionately poorly for Toyota.
Bell should qualify well for Sunday's event, and this line will tick closer to 6-1 or 7-1 by the time the green flag flies. That said, bettors should limit their exposure on this market because 17-2 odds don't offer the best returns.
Christopher Bell (+130 for .75 Unit) at DraftKings vs. Denny Hamlin
Bell is a sharp play at any 1.5-mile, high-speed intermediate for the reasons outlined above. He has performed well in qualifying and finished every event, save Texas and Michigan, inside the top 10. While he doesn't enjoy an equipment advantage over teammate Denny Hamlin, he has consistently run close to his teammate in the comparator events.
Bell beat Hamlin in the first Las Vegas race. Hamlin then beat Bell by just one spot in both Kansas races and by four spots in the Charlotte race. Hamlin finished well ahead of Bell at Michigan because of Bell's accident, but both drivers led a similar number of laps. Their comparable performances suggest that this line should be much closer to a pick'em, especially with both drivers still in the playoff hunt.
But final results aren't the only metric bettors should evaluate. Bell started ahead of Hamlin in all but one of the comparator events. Bell's averaging starting position at those events (2.2) is well ahead of Hamlin's (12.2), which suggests this number may close much closer to even than where it currently sits. Further, Bell led more laps at three events and in total, 112 to 84. So with odds these long, backing Bell to beat Hamlin is one of the sharpest NASCAR South Point 400 picks.
Chase Briscoe (+185 for .5 Unit) at DraftKings vs. William Byron
Fading William Byron is not without risk, but the books are leaving too much value on Chase Briscoe here. Both drivers successfully advanced into the Round of 8, and both will start below the cut line. While Byron has shown more race-winning speed this season, Briscoe has looked nearly as good at high-speed intermediate tracks.
Across a six-race sample that includes last month's race at Texas, Briscoe has finished ahead of Byron twice. He did so at both quad-oval circuits, Texas and Charlotte. Briscoe underperformed at the most similar track, Kansas, by losing to Byron twice by an average of 7.5 positions, but points strategy and on-track tensions could easily make up for a similar gap come Sunday.
Byron just doesn't deserve to be such a massive favorite over Briscoe. The implied odds of Briscoe's line are 35%, and at -225, Byron is a 70% favorite. But Byron's average finish (16.3) is just barely above Briscoe's (17.8), and their average starting positions (12.9 to 13.6) are roughly the same. Briscoe even qualified better than Byron in two of the comparator events, the first races at Las Vegas and Kansas. A matchup bet is usually sharp any time it opens this far into the plus money because of all the factors outside of a driver's control, so bettors should wager a half-unit on Briscoe to beat Byron on Sunday.
