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NASCAR Cup Series Bets: GEICO 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Talladega (2024)

Last weekend’s race at Texas Motor Speedway went well for us, but it almost went even better. We cashed tickets for Brad Keselowski and Bubba Wallace to score top-10s, and it looked like Keselowski had a shot to win late, but his late-race run came up just short. Let’s get back to picking winners as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega for the 2024 GEICO 500 this Sunday. Let’s dive into the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds for Talladega as we make our picks and predictions for the 2024 GEICO 500.

Are you looking for more NASCAR sports betting content? We’ve got you covered. Check out the rest of our articles, including my 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season preview and my NASCAR betting guide, all of which should help you make the best NASCAR Cup Series betting picks and predictions for the GEICO 500 at Talladega.

NASCAR Cup Series Bets: GEICO 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Talladega (2024)

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NASCAR Cup Series Bets: GEICO 500 Odds & Race Preview

NASCAR Talladega Outright Odds

DriverOdds
William Byron+1000
Ryan Blaney+1000
Brad Keselowski+1000
Joey Logano+1100
Denny Hamlin+1100
Chase Elliott+1100
Kyle Busch+1500
Bubba Wallace+1500
Ross Chastain+1600
Christopher Bell+1600
Kyle Larson+1800
Chris Buescher+1900
Odds via DraftKings. For every driver’s GEICO 500 odds at Talladega, check out our odds post!

GEICO 500 Race Preview

The GEICO 500 is a superspeedway race, which means we can expect to see drafting and pack racing on the high banks of Talladega. We’ve already seen two drafting events this season at the two first races of the year, and one thing became clear at both — the advantage Fords enjoyed at these tracks may have shrunk, but they still enjoy some edge.

A Ford led the most laps at every superspeedway race in 2023, but the manufacturer only won three of the six events, including the fall Talladega race. That streak remains intact this season: Joey Logano led the most laps at the Daytona 500 before crashing out, and Todd Gilliland led the most laps at Atlanta before getting mired in traffic and taking damage.

But even if the new Ford and Toyota noses have reduced the advantages that Ford drivers have in the draft, which, if you ask me, we lack the data to say with certainty, it’s undeniable that the Ford stable has some of the sport’s best drivers in the draft. The three winningest active drivers at Talladega, Brad Keselowski with six (+1000) and both Joey Logano (+1100) and Ryan Blaney (+100) with three pilot Fords.

So should we just back the trio of drivers with 12 wins here? No — the rest of the Ford stable has the potential to win at superspeedways, too. Austin Cindric (+3000), Michael McDowell (+4000), Chris Buescher (+1900) and Justin Haley (+8000) all have won at Daytona in the Cup Series, and even though Todd Gilliland (+4500) didn’t get the job done at Atlanta, it certainly looked like he could have.


NASCAR Cup Series Bets: GEICO 500 Picks & Predictions | Texas

GEICO 500 Bet #1: Just Trust the Blue Ovals | NASCAR Cup Series

Last year, we got exposure to the Fords to win at every superspeedway race. While they only went 3-for-6, we still turned a profit because we got them at longer than even odds each time, and, well, a Ford driver led the most laps at each event. Arguably, we should’ve made more money. We’ve been employing the same strategy and are down because of it, but the peripheral stats all suggest we should stick to our guns.

Instead of rehashing how good Fords were at these tracks last year, let’s discuss how dominant they were at Daytona and Atlanta this year. At Daytona, Logano looked to have the fastest car all weekend, as he locked up the pole in qualifying and started alongside another Ford driver, McDowell — only to get taken out in a wreck late in the race.

At Atlanta, McDowell scored the pole while Logano started opposite him in P2. Both drivers led 27 laps and recorded top-four driver ratings. The only drivers to record driver ratings better than either McDowell or Logano were Blaney and Cindric, two other Ford drivers. Five of the top-six drivers by laps led and the top four drivers by driver rating all drove Fords.

Again, seven Ford drivers have won at least one drafting race, and three have won three or more times at Talladega. We’re getting any Ford driver to win this race at odds of +180 on FanDuel or Hard Rock, which is an absurd price for such a talented stable of drivers in rock-solid equipment. Oh, and let’s not forget that 14 of the 38 drivers on the entry list will pilot Fords — that’s 36.8%, better than the implied odds of +180 (35.7%).

GEICO 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Ford +180 at FanDuel or Hard Rock

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GEICO 500 Bet #2: Todd Gilliland Gets No Respect | NASCAR Cup Series

Through two races, both of which were on superspeedways, Todd Gilliland had led the most laps this season. He failed to win (or score a top-10) in either event due to the high-variance nature of superspeedway racing, but the books aren’t really pricing him efficiently. Well, at least FanDuel isn’t.

You’ll find Gilliland trading at top-10 odds of +300 on FanDuel. For some perspective, no other book has him at odds longer than +225. He’s also trading at +5000, which, while an unlikely outcome, is still likelier than the implied probability of 2% would have you believe.

GEICO 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Todd Gilliland +5000 at FanDuel
GEICO 500 NASCAR Betting Prediction: Todd Gilliland T10 +300 at FanDuel

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