The Cleveland Cavaliers are set to have their best season in years. By replacing Collin Sexton with Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs secured a straight upgrade at guard. Cleveland will also get point guard Ricky Rubio back after he tore his ACL last year. Cleveland’s roster is one of the deepest in the association, and the Cavaliers should contend in the Eastern Conference this season. That said, the NBA betting odds haven’t fully adjusted for how good the Cavaliers could be — even though they have already moved somewhat.
New Ohio bettors looking to back the Cavaliers this season won’t be able to place their wagers until the start of 2023. However, those looking to make up for a lost opportunity can secure plenty of free bets to do so — FanDuel Sportsbook is offering $100 in free bets to Ohioans who pre-register in advance! Cleveland fans can use that money to back the Cavs in their first game after the new year: a home stand against the Chicago Bulls.
2022-23 NBA Betting Odds: Cavaliers Picks & Predictions
Cavaliers to Win Central Division | +350 at FanDuel
Cleveland’s odds of winning the Eastern Conference have shortened from 25-1 to between 15-1 and 18-1 at most books. That no longer offers as much value as the 25-1 available right after the Mitchell trade. Likewise, books have added another two games to Cleveland’s win total, upping it to 47.5. That market no longer offers nearly as much value, either.
Fortunately, the backing Cleveland to win the Central Division remains a value bet. The Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo have dominated the division for the last four seasons, but before that, the Cleveland Cavaliers had won it for four straight years with LeBron James on the roster. No one team other than Milwaukee is a true contender for this division. The Chicago Bulls are getting older and will start the year without Lonzo Ball, the Detroit Pistons are still finishing their rebuild and the Indiana Pacers are just starting theirs.
The Central Division should come down to Milwaukee and Cleveland. The Bucks are choosing to run it back with Giannis, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. While Giannis still has plenty of gas in the tank, both Middleton and Holiday have started to regress. Middleton is on a three-year downward trend in WAR. Holiday has stagnated in the metric, but his defense has declined over the last three seasons. The Bucks have some talented young players, but they are yet to try integrating them into their lineups, and they lack depth at point guard — it’s only 36-year-old George Hill behind Holiday.
While the Bucks play strong enough basketball to warrant being favored to win the Central Division, the wrong injuries at the wrong time would hurt them more than most other contenders. The Bucks may choose to load-manage their older veterans to prevent those issues, but that decision would then create opportunities for their opponents to score regular-season upsets. The Bucks sit at -260 to win the Central Division at FanDuel, which translates to a 72.2% chance. In contrast, the Cavaliers sit at +350, which translates to a 22.2% chance. Cleveland’s odds of finishing with a better regular season than Milwaukee are higher than FanDuel’s odds suggest — most other books have Milwaukee slightly longer and Cleveland much shorter. The Cavaliers sit at just +300 at Caesars and +245 at DraftKings.
