With weeks remaining before the 2022-23 NBA season, bettors are fast losing the opportunity to place high-value futures bets. Key offseason storylines have already resolved themselves: Kevin Durant will return to Brooklyn and Donovan Mitchell is off to Cleveland. Even three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert is headed elsewhere. With time running out to exploit the NBA Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) odds, here are the top DPOY predictions.
2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Betting Odds & Predictions
2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds
Ben Simmons | +3000 at Caesars
This is a bit of a hold-your-nose play, but the market may never be this low on Ben Simmons again. Simmons finished second in DPOY voting in 2020-21 and fourth in 2019-20. At 6-foot-11, Simmons has the size and length to defend anyone on the court. Opposing players shot just 62% against Simmons from less than five feet rim and 36.2% from beyond the arc in his last season with the 76ers. For comparison, reigning DPOY Marcus Smart allowed his opponents to shoot 62.5% from less than five feet and 33.5% from beyond the arc. Simmons' opponents were also less likely to attempt 3's against him than they were Smart, so some shot selection bias may hurt his averages.
Historical and recent trends support this play. Ever since Marc Gasol won the award in 2012-13, no NBA Defensive Player of the Year has won before earning a selection to an All-Defensive First Team. This eliminates players with shorter odds, including Robert Williams, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and Joel Embiid. Next, no player has won the award after their age-29 season since Kevin Garnett did it in 2007-08. Given the contemporary NBA's faster pace, it's hard to see veterans Rudy Gobert or Draymond Green keeping up enough to win the award.
Another thing in Simmons' favor is DPOY voters embracing perimeter defense over paint defense in 2022. Big men like Gobert, Draymond Green and Giannis Antetokounmpo have dominated the award, but the NBA has already become a perimeter-based game. Color commentator Doris Burke justified her vote for Smart by reasoning that perimeter defenders play a much larger role than they once did, and other voters used similar logic. Should Simmons return to his 2020-21 defensive form, his perimeter defense should have earned him shorter NBA DPOY odds. With a line as short as 18-1 at some books, getting Simmons this long feels like stealing.
Bam Adebayo | +750 at BetMGM
Like Simmons, Bam Adebayo can defend any player anywhere on the court. He recorded better individual defensive numbers than Smart in some categories. Adebayo gave up a slightly higher interior shooting percentage of 64.6% but allowed a slightly lower perimeter shooting percentage of 32.8%. Those all marked solid improvements over his numbers from 2020-21. Adebayo also averaged 10.1 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. If he can maintain that upward trend, he could end up winning this year's Defensive Player of the Year Award.
While Adebayo doesn't check out all the boxes laid out above -- he has been selected to the All-Defensive Second Team three times but is yet to get a First-Team selection -- he was the first man out in both 2021-22 and 2020-21. Adebayo even earned more First-Team votes than Jaren Jackson Jr. last year, but Jackson's advantage in Second-Team votes gave him exactly 1 more point than Adebayo.
Adebayo sits between 7-1 and 15-2 almost everywhere. That said, BetRivers has an off-market number of 7-2 that speaks to where the market may end up in the future. With the Miami Heat failing to add a new offensive weapon in the offseason, they'll have to lean on their defense even more next year, and that could allow Adebayo to build a strong case for this award.
