Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Friday, April 19

With Jimmy Butler out for the Miami Heat, expect to see more minutes for big wings like Jaime Jaquez Jr., Haywood Highsmith and Nikola Jovic. All three players cause major problems for opposing offenses and hustle to the boards — while the trio rarely see the floor together, they’ll combine to make life hell for any Chicago Bulls on the floor.

I expect this to hurt no one more than center Nikola Vucevic. His relatively limited shot profile will age poorly against Miami — he takes 55% of his shots in the paint, where the Heat allow the third-fewest points per game (46.4) and the fewest since the All-Star Break (44.4).

Although Vucevic has some mid-range and 3-pointers in his bag, he has converted only 29% of his looks from above the break this year. His 45.5% conversion rate from mid-range could be a problem, but I doubt he’ll see the volume of shots necessary to make up for a reduction in interior scoring. But we’re not just fading him as a scorer — we’re combining his points and rebounds prop.

As you can see, we’re beating the market by a massive margin. Books with the 3.5 all have the price set to -190 or shorter, including the -205 at DraftKings. By using OddsShopper Premium, you can easily find bets that are trading with positive expected value (+EV) like this one.

We can tell we’re getting +EV on this bet because our model’s estimate of the wager’s true odds clocks in at -163. The model generates this number by indexing the odds across the betting landscape; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and producing that breakeven price.

When a bet is available for a better price than its true odds, we know it’s +EV! Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine. While you won’t win every bet, and your bankroll won’t transform overnight, we have the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.

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