Yesterday’s article could have done better — we hit our Dereck Lively II rebounds under but lost our points over for Rudy Gobert and our assists over for Mike Conley after the duo struggled to do much against the Mavericks. That brings my full NBA cards to 126-103-3 (+29.8u) on the year. If you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Kyle Kuzma, Paolo Banchero and Dennis Schröder tonight. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Kyle Kuzma & More
Kyle Kuzma Player Prop
The Indiana Pacers cannot stop high-usage interior scorers. We’ve seen them cough up 35-plus points to Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo (twice) in the last two weeks alone. The next player on their schedule who fits that profile is Kyle Kuzma, and I expect big things from him tonight.
Let’s quickly recap the numbers for Indiana: the Pacers, on a per-game basis, give up the most shots in the restricted area (22) and the most points in the paint (62.7). They allow the most points per game to power forwards (29) like Kuzma as well.
In addition to playing at the four, Kuzma also leads the Wizards in shots attempted in the restricted area per game (5.4). He attempts another five shots per game in the non-restricted paint, where the Pacers rank fourth-worst in made field goals allowed.
We’re able to buy Kuzma to go over the 24.5 at odds of -125 (55.6%). That may not seem like a great deal considering Kuzma averages only 23 points per game, but with Jordan Poole questionable, it makes sense — Kuzma’s usage would almost certainly skyrocket if the guard sits. Still, Kuzma beat the 24.5 in his last start against the Pacers, and he did so despite playing just 25 minutes — if he can score a point per minute again, he could easily clear the 30-plus (+195 at DraftKings) and 35-plus (+500 at DraftKings). He may get the chance to do so with the Pacers on the front end of a back-to-back set and the Wizards not scheduled to play again until Sunday.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Kuzma Over 24.5 Points -125 at BetMGM
Paolo Banchero Player Prop
The Orlando Magic will visit the Boston Celtics tonight. The Magic have put together an incredible season to this point and own a 16-7 record, third-best in the Eastern Conference. Can they keep it up? Tonight’s game against the Celtics will be a big test, and it’s one I don’t expect Paolo Banchero to ace. Boston’s defense allows the fewest points per game to power forwards (19). They’re below average against the position in rebounds and assists, but those matter far less on PRA markets than actual scoring production. With Banchero averaging only 32 PRA per game, I can’t turn down the under 32.5 for near-even odds, and OddsShopper Premium can’t, either.
Matchup aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Paolo Banchero under today because of the pricing disparity. The -115 (53.5%) on FanDuel for the under 32.5 is worse than the true odds for this wager of -130 (56.5%). DraftKings even lists the under 31.5 at the steeper price of -125 (55.6%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Paolo Banchero Under 32.5 PRA -115 at FanDuel
Dennis Schröder Player Prop
The Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks squared off on Wednesday. We had a Dennis Schröder assists ladder for that game, and he failed to get to the first rung, tallying only seven assists. The books have now dropped his standard assists total from 7.5 to 6.5 for -150 (60%), and I’m running back the ladder tonight. Remember, Atlanta allows the second-most assists per game to both all positions (28.8) and point guards (9.9).
Sometimes reads are bad, but other times, beats are bad. Good NBA player prop bettors can distinguish between the two. Schröder may have finished with only seven assists, but he made 72 passes and racked up 12 potential assists. Schröder averages 62 passes and 11.2 potential assists per game, so he had an above-average showing. His three free-throw assists proved costly for us.
Schröder is in a great spot to make up our losses from Wednesday. The Hawks are on the front end of a back-to-back set, but the Raptors won’t play again until Monday, so we can expect to see plenty of minutes for Toronto’s starters against Atlanta’s reserves tonight. These circumstances should directly benefit Schröder.
With the books discounting Schröder’s assist line by one despite his strong showing in peripheral metrics on Wednesday, I’m thrilled to take advantage tonight. I’m buying the standard over for Schröder’s assists (6.5 at -150 on ESPNBet) and laddering up to 10 (+400 at FanDuel) through eight (+125 at FanDuel). I suspect we’ll see the odds for these plays get bid down as tip approaches, so get your action down early.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dennis Schröder Over 6.5 Assists -150 at ESPNBet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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