Last night was a good one for this column — we hit on our Giannis Antetokounmpo ladder up to 37, Myles Turner hit a pair of threes in the first half, and we only lost our Anthony Davis pick. My full NBA cards are up to 99-82 (+22.6u) on the year, and if you want access to them in real time, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Tonight, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Kristaps Porzingis, Nikola Jokic and Cameron Johnson. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Nikola Jokic & More
Kristaps Porzingis Player Prop
It’s another revenge game for Kristaps Porzingis tonight. The former member of the New York Knicks has lined up against his previous team 10 times now, and he is averaging 22 points, 8.6 rebounds and 3.1 3-pointers per game against them. We’re locking in the over on his 3-pointer prop because of New York’s inability to stop sharpshooting bigs.
The Knicks are coughing up 1.7 3-pointers per game to centers, which ranks second-most in the NBA, and 2.8 per game to power forwards, which ranks sixth. Most of that damage has come from the corner — New York’s perimeter defense is allowing the third-most corner 3-pointers per game (4.5).
Porzingis is mostly an above-the-break shooter for Boston, but he should still benefit from the matchup against Mitchell Robinson, who is more of a traditional center than a switchable big.
Porzingis 3-pointer prop is set to 2.5 at FanDuel but is unavailable at most other books, including Pinnacle. The over is priced at +134. With Porzingis playing a lower-usage role in Boston and averaging only 1.6 3-pointers per game, those odds make sense. However, Porzingis has cleared that number in six of his 10 matchups with the Knicks since his departure, including both of his starts against them with the Celtics. I trust him to cash the over again tonight, and I’m comfortable laddering this one up to 3.5.
Cameron Johnson Player Prop
We’re turning to tonight’s game between the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards for our next pick. The Wizards have absolutely no interior defense, as they’re coughing up the second-most points in the paint per game (59.4), which makes fading one of Brooklyn’s sharpshooters on the 3-pointers market a good idea. OddsShopper Premium and I are targeting Cameron Johnson here. Johnson is averaging a steady 2.5 3-pointers per game, but he shot just 2-for-11 in his previous outing against the Wizards this year.
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Cameron Johnson under today entirely because of the pricing disparity. The -109 (52.2%) on FanDuel is worse than the true odds for this wager of -119 (54.3%) and the posted odds of -138 (58%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book. OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Cameron Johnson Under 2.5 3-Pointers -109 at Caesars
Nikola Jokic Player Prop
The Houston Rockets are pretty good this year, which makes fading Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic a smart bet. Houston ranks fourth in defensive rating (109.6) while playing at the third-slowest pace. The Rockets also rank 12th in rebound rate (50.6%) and first in assists allowed per game (22.9).
We’re fading Jokic specifically because he has owned the Rockets this season. Through three matchups, Jokic is averaging 35.3 points, 16.7 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game — good for 63.3 PRA per contest. I’m skeptical of his ability to maintain that level of performance. Jokic is averaging just 51.3 PRA per game this year and 48.9 with Jamal Murray, who is probable, this year.
So how can Houston’s defense finally limit Jokic’s statistical output? For one, they should benefit from some regression. Jokic owns shooting splits of 51/38/82 against Houston relative to season averages of 55/30/79. That isn’t a massive difference, but his production from beyond the arc can be expected to tick down. His assist rates, which have been above 53.5% in each of his games against Houston, should also regress to his mean (47.7%).
The books are taking action on Jokic’s PRA prop at 52.5. BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet are all listing the under at odds of +100. You’ll also find it at -113 on FanDuel. Pretty much every other book has a much steeper price — DraftKings and BetMGM list it at -120, while Pinnacle lists it at -128. It feels risky to fade the Joker against a team he has recently looked dominant against, but I’m chalking more up to variance than legitimate problems for Houston’s defense.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 52.5 +100 at BetRivers
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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