Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Friday, January 19

Anthony Davis Player Prop

The Los Angeles Lakers will play the Brooklyn Nets at home tonight, and both Anthony Davis (probable) and LeBron James (questionable) have received their usual injury designations for the affair but are expected to play. I’m fading Davis in this spot against an increasingly stingy and slow Nets team.

The Nets may rank only 19th in defensive rating this year (116.5), but they’re 24th in pace (98.5) and second in points allowed in the paint per game (45.8). Those numbers have improved lately. Over the last seven, Brooklyn ranks ninth (113.3), 27th (96.1) and third (42.3), respectively.

The Nets’ interior defense has allowed the third-fewest makes in the non-restricted paint (6.4) on the second-lowest conversion rate (39.4%). Davis takes most of his interior looks in the restricted area, but a surprisingly high 31.4% of his field goals come in the non-restricted paint.

The Nets have also allowed the fourth-fewest points per game to power forwards (21.7) and the ninth-fewest to centers (21.5) this year. Davis will still get some dunks and layups, but the Nets should reduce his overall offensive output.

Orlando’s defense deserves a load of credit. The Magic rank third in defensive rating this year (111.1) and fourth over the last seven games (110.7). They have allowed the fewest assists per game to all positions (23.7) and the fourth-fewest to point guards (7.7). Pair their efficiency with the third-slowest pace over the last seven (95.9) and you’ve got a recipe for unders.

Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Tyrese Maxey under today because of a clear market inefficiency. The under 6.5 is priced at only +106 (48.5%) at Caesars — which is worse than the true odds of -102 (50.5%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 6.5 for -114 (53.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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Dejounte Murray Player Prop

Dejounte Murray will get the opportunity to run point for the Atlanta Hawks tonight with Trae Young sidelined. Unfortunately, that likely means the majority of Miami’s defensive attention will be focused on him, which means we’re fading him as a scorer. In nine games with the Hawks without Young, Murray is averaging 25.4 points with a median of exactly 25.

This year, Murray has been more of a passer than a scorer without Young. He obliterated the Pistons for 32 points in November but also tallied 10 assists. He then only scored 20 points against the 76ers in December while dishing nine assists. With Miami’s defense and pace more similar to Philadelphia’s than Detroit’s, a lower-scoring game for Murray should be in the cards.

Miami’s defense hasn’t been perfect this year, but the unit still ranks a steady 10th in defensive rating (113), and, when paired with the second-slowest pace (97.8), they’re a great team for unders. The Heat have even improved to sixth (111.7) and 30th (95.1) over the last seven. Through those seven games, they rank eighth in points allowed per game to point guards (21.2).