Magic-Cavaliers Game 7: A major inflection point in both these playoffs and the future of the franchises. It’s a big one, and I’ve found a prop bet that is worth some action, thanks to OddsShopper Premium. Let’s get into the best Magic-Cavaliers NBA player prop for Paolo Banchero. Check out our NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Magic-Cavaliers Picks for Paolo Banchero
Paolo Banchero Player Prop
Jarrett Allen‘s status for this game is still up in the air, and projections are operating under the assumption that he will be in the lineup for the Cavaliers. That affects Banchero in a couple of ways: For one, Allen adds another layer of rim protection, and two, Banchero will probably see more Evan Mobley matchups in Cleveland’s two-big lineups. Mobley is one of the few players on the Cavs who has both the size to combat Banchero and the athleticism to hang with him.
Banchero has really upped his game this series, averaging over 25 points a game (up from 22.6 in the regular season) and increasing his true shooting percentage by 1.5 points. He is not getting to the free-throw line as much, but he is shooting more 3’s and making them at a higher clip to make up for the lack of fouls drawn.
All that said, 25.2 points per game is still below the 25.5 line, and with Franz Wagner stepping up more offensively, Banchero has gone for 26 or more in only three of six games this series. That includes a 9-point outing in Orlando’s Game 4 win.
Bet365 is holding the odds on under 25.5 points for Banchero firm at -115, while other books either have the line at 24.5 or have 25.5 juiced to -130 or shorter. Either way, 25.5 gives us the extra point of buffer room, and the -115 makes it a +EV given the true odds of -126.
Of course, a Banchero explosion is easily in play; he went for almost 40 in Game 5. However, the results with OddsShopper’s model prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run when you take these +EV bets.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Paolo Banchero Under 25.5 Points (-115 at bet365)
For the best price currently available, see our Paolo Banchero live odds page!
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