Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Nov. 27

Isaiah Stewart Player Prop

The Detroit Pistons will host the Washington Wizards tonight in a battle in the basement of the Eastern Conference. Both teams have serious defensive flaws, but the Wizards are the team I’m more interested in fading. On a per-game basis, their defense has coughed up the second-most made shots in the restricted area (21.1) and the second-most made shots from the corner (4.6). Those holes have corresponded to the eighth-most points per game allowed to power forwards (26.1) and the most allowed to centers (27).

Isaiah Stewart takes most of his shots in the restricted area and can bang in a few shots from the wing and corner. Stewart ranks fifth on the Pistons in shots taken per game in the restricted area (4.2) and fourth in shots taken per game from the corner (1.3). He is averaging 11.8 points per game, but some of that production came with fellow big man Jalen Duren sidelined. Duren returned to the lineup — albeit off the bench — in Detroit’s last game.

Paul George Player Prop

The Los Angeles Clippers will host the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets are on the wrong end of a back-to-back set after beating the San Antonio Spurs at home last night, and they are a 5.5-point underdog in this spot. Still, the Nuggets have allowed the fewest above-the-break 3-pointers this year (7.7). A whopping 85% of George’s 3-pointers have been shot from that zone.

In addition to the unfavorable matchup, our NBA betting tools want action on this Paul George under today because of the pricing disparity. The -125 (55.7%) on bet365 is worse than the true odds for this wager of -135 (57.5%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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NBA Player Prop Pick: Paul George Under 3.5 3-Pointers -125 at bet365

Deandre Ayton Player Prop

This Deandre Ayton pick is a plug-your-nose play. Few NBA players are as, well, cringeworthy as Ayton — his self-given nickname of “DominAyton” is one of the most embarrassing stories in the NBA this year. Yet the Indiana Pacers are bad enough on defense to warrant a wager on his overs, so let’s hope he can deliver for us tonight. If he can’t deliver in this spot, that nickname will feel as undeserved as ever.

Indiana is allowing the most made shots per game in the restricted area (23.9) and the most points per game in the paint (63.5). That corresponds to the second-most points per game allowed to centers (26.8). Ayton ranks only fifth on the Trail Blazers in shots taken in the restricted area per game (3.1), but he leads the team in shots taken in the paint but outside the restricted area (4.5), so he trails only Jerami Grant in overall shots taken per game in the paint.

Ayton didn’t get to play the Indiana Pacers much while in the Western Conference with the Phoenix Suns, but when he did, he often delivered. Ayton went for 20-plus points in his two starts against the Pacers since the start of the 2022-23 season. He racked up 27 over 30 minutes last January and 22 over 30 minutes this February. Both games were played in Indianapolis, so he’ll also have the benefit of home court tonight.

Ayton is averaging only 12.6 points per game this year — and only 11.7 points per game at home — but if he can’t buck those trends with a big game against the Pacers’ defense, well, yikes.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Deandre Ayton 15+ Points -110 at FanDuel