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Categories NBA

Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Saturday, January 6

Updated January 6, 2024 | 5:41 pm CDT by Isaiah Sirois
Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Monday, May 27

Yesterday’s article went an encouraging 2-1, cashing unders for Jusuf Nurkic and Alperen Sengün but losing an over for Jalen Johnson. My full NBA cards are now 188-169-10 (+29.5u) on the year. As always, if you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Today, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Jayson Tatum, Alperen Sengün and Jrue Holiday. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.

NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jayson Tatum & More

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Jayson Tatum Player Prop

The Boston Celtics will take on the Indiana Pacers tonight. Both teams played last night, with the Pacers beating up the Atlanta Hawks and the Celtics beating up the Utah Jazz. Jayson Tatum stands to benefit from the matchup against Indiana’s defense, which can’t do much to stop high-scoring players in the paint.

Tatum is also averaging an absurd 34 points when playing without rest this year over a three-game sample. His usage rate spikes by a full two percent when the Celtics are on the wrong end of a back-to-back set.

Tatum’s shot profile points to value here, too. He leads the Celtics in field goals made (4.1) and attempted (5.8) in the restricted area on a solid 70.4% conversion rate. He also ranks second on the team in drives per game (8.6), behind only Jaylen Brown, but still averages more points per drive than him at 7.4, largely because of his ability to get to the charity stripe.

Since 2021-22, Jayson Tatum has owned the Pacers. He is averaging 31.1 points per game against them over a nine-game sample that includes three performances with 30-plus points. He toasted the Pacers for 30 and 32 points earlier this year.

The best NBA player prop bets and picks today for Saturday, January 6, include wagers on Jayson Tatum and Alperen Sengun.
via StatMuse

You’ll find Tatum priced at -115 to go over the 27.5 at ESPNBet, which he has done in seven of his last nine against the Pacers, in nine of his 16 road games this year and in two of his three games played without rest. I’m laddering this one to 33.5 (+220 at ESPNBet) through 31.5 (+165 at ESPNBet) and 29.5 (+125 at ESPNBet) to capitalize on the high upside Tatum carries tonight.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points -115 at ESPNBet

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Jrue Holiday Player Prop

We’ve got an over for Tatum, but we’re playing an under for Jrue Holiday in tonight’s Pacers-Celtics battle. Despite Indiana’s defensive woes and fast pace, the Pacers have surrendered remarkably few assists to point guards this year. Indiana ranks seventh in assists allowed per game to the position this year (8.1) and second over the last seven games (6.4). Holiday dished four and three assists in his prior games against the Pacers. With this matchup on deck for him, I’ve got to have action on his assists under, and OddsShopper Premium recommends doing the same.

The best NBA player prop bets and picks today for Saturday, January 6, include wagers on Jayson Tatum and Alperen Sengun.

Holiday is no longer a high-volume passer. When Holiday plays alongside Tatum and Porzingis, he averages 4.6 assists per game. He ranks second in Boston in potential assists (8.3), down from the 13.8 per game he averaged in Milwaukee.

Stats and matchup aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Jrue Holiday under today because of the market inefficiency. The under 4.5 is priced at only -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -113 (53.1%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 4.5 priced down at -127 (56%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off! If you’re skeptical of their profitability, check out the testimonials from readers like you below!

NBA Player Prop Pick: Jrue Holiday Under 6.5 Assists -105 at DraftKings


Alperen Sengün Player Prop

The Houston Rockets will take on the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The Rockets just got beat up by the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, while the Bucks nearly lost to the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday. The Bucks.

Milwaukee’s defense, which couldn’t stop opposing perimeter shooters earlier in the year, now can’t seem to stop interior scorers. Over the last 10 games, the Bucks have allowed the most points in the paint (61.4).

Opposing centers have feasted against the Bucks lately. While Milwaukee ranks 18th in points per game allowed to centers this year (22.8), the club ranks 27th over the last 15 (26.4) and 28th over the last seven (27.1).

The recent box scores demonstrate how much the Bucks have struggled lately. Victor Wembanyama scored 27 in 26 minutes on Thursday. Jarrett Allen erupted for 30 in 40 last Friday. Even Moritz Wagner erupted for 21 in 27 a few days before Christmas.

You’ll find Sengün priced at odds of -125 to go over the 22.5 at FanDuel. With him averaging 21.5 points per game, that price may seem like a fair one, but a few splits suggest that it’s slightly inefficient. For one, Sengün is averaging an absurd 27.4 points per game when the Rockets play without rest over a five-game sample, clearing the over four times. For another, Sengün is averaging 25.4 when Dillon Brooks sits over another five-game sample, also clearing the over four times. I’m wagering enough on this one to secure a full-unit profit.

NBA Player Prop Pick: Alperen Sengün Over 22.5 Points -125 at FanDuel

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OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.

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Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

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