We had just our second 1-2 showing since mid-November in this space last night. Giannis Antetokounmpo cashed our points ladder up to 37 (if only we had laddered higher!) while Dennis Schröder missed his assists over by one and Kyle Lowry blew his points under out of the water. Still, my full card made a profit, bringing us to 125-96-3 (+33.4u) on the year. If you want access to my full cards in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley and Dereck Lively II already tonight. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Rudy Gobert & More
Rudy Gobert Player Prop
You may notice that all of today’s NBA player prop picks are from tonight’s game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks. While I’m usually against putting all your eggs in one basket, this game has a pretty predictable script to it.
Dallas’ defense struggles to do anything in the paint. The Mavericks are allowing the fifth-most points in the paint per game (53.4) on the ninth-most made shots in the restricted area (18.4). That corresponds to the second-most points allowed per game to centers (25.5).
Gobert should feast against Dallas’ poor frontcourt defense, which we’ve seen him do twice with Minnesota. In two starts against them with his new team, Gobert tallied 19 and 21 points. The latter performance came alongside point guard Mike Conley. Look for more of the same tonight.
Conley and Gobert have lined up against the Mavericks nine times in the regular season and six times in the playoffs. Gobert has tallied at least 15 points in seven of those 15 games. Importantly, Gobert is averaging 19 points per game against the Mavs without Donovan Mitchell, going over the 15 all but once. With Gobert’s new high-usage guard teammate, Anthony Edwards, listed as questionable — along with several other pieces like Jordan McLaughlin and Jaden McDaniels — another big showing could be in the cards for the veteran center.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 14.5 Points -120 at DraftKings
Dereck Lively II Player Prop
We’re onto our next pick in Mavericks-Timberwolves. Rookie center Dereck Lively II has been a steady producer for Dallas thus far, but he now takes on a Minnesota squad that has allowed the fewest rebounds per game to centers (12.4). Lively owns a total of 8.5 despite averaging only 8.1 rebounds per game, so the books are calling for an above-average night in a well below-average matchup. I can’t turn down the under for odds of -118 at FanDuel. OddsShopper Premium can’t, either.
Matchup aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Dereck Lively II under today because of the pricing disparity. The -118 (54.1%) on FanDuel is worse than the true odds for this wager of -128 (56.1%) and the odds at Pinnacle, a sharp book, which has the under 7.5 at +112 (47.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” at checkout for 20% off! If you’re worried about the cost, just check out the testimonials from our subscribers below.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dereck Lively II Under 8.5 Rebounds -118 at FanDuel
Mike Conley Player Prop
Our final player prop pick for tonight’s Mavericks-Timberwolves game is for Mike Conley. If we’re backing Gobert to score, it makes sense that we’re backing Conley to dish out assists. Conley and Gobert are familiar with each other from their time together in Utah, and the veteran point guard is more than happy to set up his big-man teammate with lob passes.
Conley is averaging 6.2 assists per game this year, which could be better, but that jumps to 6.5 when he plays on the road and eight when Anthony Edwards sits. Minnesota will visit Dallas for this one, and, as mentioned above, Edwards is questionable. Jordan McLaughlin is also questionable, and while he doesn’t play a ton of minutes, Conley’s assist average ticks up to 6.6 in games in which McLaughlin doesn’t see the floor.
Dallas’ defense also struggles to stop opposing guards from setting up their teammates. The Mavs have allowed the third-most assists per game to the position (9.8) and the seventh-most overall assists per game (27.3).
One final reason to lock in the over for this Conley prop: volume. Conley averages 55.9 passes, 9.3 potential assists and 6.2 assists per game, but over the last seven, those numbers jump to 60.3, 11.1 and 7.6, respectively. I’m laddering this one up to 10 through eight with a full unit on the over 6.5, which you’ll find priced at only -110 on DraftKings. This prop pick has value even if Edwards plays, but if he doesn’t, I want to have gotten my action down early.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Mike Conley Over 6.5 Assists -110 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
