Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Dec. 26

Zion Williamson Player Prop

The Memphis Grizzlies haven’t done much well this year, but the return of Ja Morant has provided a shot in the arm, and now the return of Marcus Smart looms. But even without Morant, the Grizzlies were playing excellent interior defense. On a per-game basis, Memphis has allowed the fewest points in the paint (43.6), the fifth-fewest made shots in the restricted area (15.3) and the fourth-fewest made shots in the non-restricted paint (6.5).

Zion Williamson is almost exclusively an interior scorer. A whopping 96.1% of his field goal attempts have come in the paint. When he faced the Grizzlies before Christmas break, Williamson was held to a mere 13 points, tied for his third-worst showing of the season. While Williamson has gotten a few days off to adjust because of the Christmas pause, one wonders whether time away from the team is good for the superstar forward.

Williamson’s averages just aren’t that good this year, either. His 22.3 points per game are worse than the total where this line is trading (23.5). Although this is a home game for Williamson, and he averages 2.4 more points per game in New Orleans than outside of it, that still adds up to only 23.4 points per game.

Data and scheduling aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Nicolas Claxton under today since there is a pricing disparity. The under 9.5 is priced at only +105 (49.2%) at DraftKings, which is worse than the true odds of -106 (%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 9.5 priced down at -125 (55.6%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.

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NBA Player Prop Pick: Nicolas Claxton Under 9.5 Rebounds +105 at DraftKings

Chet Holmgren Player Prop

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves look like the future of the Western Conference at the moment. They’ll square off in Oklahoma tonight, and I’m locking in an over for center Chet Holmgren in this matchup. When these teams met in late November, Holmgren shot 3-for-8 from beyond the arc. His 3-pointers prop is now trading at 1.5 with the juice stacked on the under.

Although the Timberwolves have been quite good at stopping perimeter shooters this year, center remains a bit of a liability. Sure, they have allowed the 12th-fewest 3-pointers per game to the position (0.9) — they also happen to rank better against every other position. Sharpshooting centers tend to pull up when Rudy Gobert is there to lock down the paint.

Holmgren’s 3-pointers are a key part of Oklahoma City’s offensive scheme. He ranks second on the team in 3-pointers attempted from above the break per game (3.6), trailing only bench guard Isaiah Joe. He ranks third on the roster in total 3-pointers converted (111) as well. The odds of +120 at bet365 are just too long for the over 1.5.