Yes sir — we scored a clean 3-0 sweep yesterday, and we even cashed our Brandon Ingram ladder to the top! This column is now up to 31-7 on NBA player prop picks since November 20 without a day worse than 2-1. Can we keep it rolling? I’ve got action down on Julius Randle, Brook Lopez and D’Angelo Russell in this spot. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Julius Randle & More
Julius Randle Player Prop
We’re circling back to an angle I loved early last month: Julius Randle over 1.5 3-pointers against the Milwaukee Bucks. He didn’t cash for us then, but if you look at his shot chart from that game, it wasn’t for a lack of volume — Randle just went 1-for-9 (11.1%) from beyond the arc, his third-worst perimeter shooting performance to date this year. Randle is shooting 27.9% from beyond the arc this year and 33.3% for his career. If Randle attempted nine 3-pointers again tonight, he would tally 2.5 or 3 at those rates.
I like this angle not because Randle is a good shooter but because Milwaukee’s defense struggles on the perimeter. The Bucks have allowed the 12th-most 3-pointers per game (13.2) and the third-most to power forwards like Randle (3.1). Atlanta’s Saddiq Bey just shot 4-for-6 against them in their last game. Washington’s Kyle Kuzma shot 5-for-13 across two starts against them over the last two weeks. Portland’s Jerami Grant even popped off to go 3-for-6 against their defense.
While Randle’s shooting efficiency, er, inefficiency makes him a frustrating player to get action on, I think it’s worth tempting fate in this matchup. If he takes nine 3-pointers again, well, it’s likelier than not that he makes two of them. Randle has tallied multiple 3-pointers in 10 of his 19 appearances this year (52.6%), which could be better, but the do-or-die nature of the in-season tournament means we can at least project him for plenty of minutes. Randle is averaging 1.7 3-pointers per game when he plays at least 30 minutes, so lock him in to record over 1.5 tonight for odds of -145 (59.2%) on DraftKings.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Julius Randle Over 1.5 3-Pointers -145 at DraftKings
D’Angelo Russell Player Prop
Tonight’s game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns should be competitive and feature plenty of minutes for the star players on both sides. Still, OddsShopper Premium can’t get enough of this under for D’Angelo Russell, and I kind of agree with it. Russell is averaging 2.2 3-pointers per game this year, but he is converting 40.9% of his attempts, far higher than his career rate of 36.4%. He now draws a matchup with a Suns defense that has allowed the third-fewest 3-pointers to point guards (2.4).
Stats aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this D’Angelo Russell under today mostly because of the pricing disparity. The +160 (38.5%) on BetRivers and +154 (39.4%) on FanDuel are worse than the true odds for this wager of +140 (41.7%) and the posted odds of +126 (44.3%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book. OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: D’Angelo Russell Under 1.5 3-Pointers +154 at FanDuel
Brook Lopez Player Prop
Let’s circle back to tonight’s Knicks-Bucks matchup. Much like the Bucks have struggled to stop opposing power forwards from beyond the arc, the Knicks have struggled to stop opposing centers. New York has coughed up the 14th-fewest 3-pointers per game this year (12.4) but the second-most to opposing centers (1.7).
Brook Lopez has often taken advantage of the Knicks and opposing center Mitchell Robinson. Lopez has lined up against Robinson nine times with the Bucks and is averaging 1.8 3-pointers per game through that span, including his most recent two starts against him.
When the Knicks and Bucks met in early November, Lopez shot a solid 4-for-10 (40%) from beyond the arc. He is shooting 36.3% from deep this year and 34.7% for his career, so that showing was a bit more efficient than usual, but if we’re getting that many looks from him, we probably won’t need to sweat the over.
Lopez has hit multiple 3-pointers in only 10 of his 20 appearances this year (50%), so I don’t love paying up for the over 1.5 at odds of -155 (60.8%) at BetMGM. I liked the -135 (57.5%) I posted in Discord for OddsShopper Premium users before this article went live a lot more. That said, what I do love is splitting a unit between that number and the over 2.5 at odds of +210 (32.3%) at ESPNBet to secure a unit-plus profit it Lopez hits three or more again.
One final note: if you’re new to BetMGM, use our BetMGM bonus code for free OddsShopper Premium and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet worth up to $1,500! I would recommend just using your first wager on this Lopez prop and not laddering if you still have access to that promotion available to you.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Brook Lopez Over 1.5 3-Pointers -135 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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