We kept the momentum rolling last night with a 2-1 showing, bringing us to 15-3 since last Monday. That winning percentage probably isn’t sustainable, but we’re going to do our best to sustain it. While I’m not in love with tonight’s NBA card, I’ve still got player prop picks for guys like Julius Randle, Mark Williams and Harrison Barnes. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Julius Randle & More
Julius Randle Player Prop
Few players have been less efficient than Julius Randle this year. However, the same Randle that owns shooting splits of 39/27/69 is also shooting 49/33/60 against the Charlotte Hornets across two matchups. While some may point to tonight’s matchup as a negative regression spot, I actually think it’s a positive one. On a per-game basis, Charlotte’s defense is allowing the seventh-most points in the paint (52.9), the fifth-most made shots in the restricted area (19.9) and the fifth-most made shots from above the break (10.6).
Randle feasts — well, Randle tries to feast — from those zones. He leads the Knicks in shot attempts from the restricted area per game (5) and ranks second in shot attempts from above the break (4.9). He is converting only 52.5% and 24.4% of his attempts from those zones, respectively, but Charlotte is allowing 66.7% and 38.8% of shots from them.
Randle has tallied 23 and 21 points against Charlotte, higher than his season average (19.6), because of their poor defensive play. When the Knicks hosted the Hornets at Madison Square Gardner earlier this month, Randle tallied 23 in just 27 minutes. New York last played on Sunday and won’t play again until Thursday, so don’t expect head coach Tom Thibodeau to be conservative with his stars’ minutes. Randle should go surpass the 21.5, and you can buy the over for only -110 at DraftKings. Consider splitting a unit between the standard total and the 25-plus at odds of +160.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Julius Randle Over 21.5 Points -110 at DraftKings
Mark Williams Player Prop
We’re going right back to tonight’s Hornets-Knicks game with this pick for center Mark Williams. Williams has faced the Knicks twice this year and tallied point totals of 10 and seven. He now has three-career appearances against New York through which he is averaging eight points per game. New York’s interior defense ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.1).
Tough matchup aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this Mark Williams under today because of the pricing disparity. The -115 (53.5%) on FanDuel is worse than the true odds for this wager of -130 (56.5%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Mark Williams Under 11.5 Points -115 at FanDuel
Harrison Barnes Player Prop
The Golden State Warriors will visit the Sacramento Kings in a rematch of last year’s playoff series. You can tune into the game live on TNT. Sacramento will have to host the Los Angeles Clippers tomorrow as well, so head coach Mike Brown could get creative with his minutes distribution, especially at wing, where he has a number of viable pieces.
Unfortunately for Sacramento’s wings, Golden State’s defense has fared quite well against the position. The Warriors have coughed up the third-fewest points per game to small forwards (18.6), the 11th-fewest to power forwards (22.2) and the 15th-fewest to shooting guards (22.5). Point guards and centers have been the problem for Golden State, so expect plenty of production from De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis.
Of the wings we can fade for Sacramento, my top pick is Harrison Barnes. He is averaging only 12.6 points per game on the year with a 14.8% usage rate. The injury to Keegan Murray has cut Sacramento’s rotation at the position short, leading Barnes to average 20 per game without him, but I don’t think that production is sustainable, especially not against Golden State.
Barnes and the Kings hosted the Warriors back in October, and he scored just 10 points as Fox and Sabonis dominated. He added 14 in a road game at the start of the month. Barnes has averaged just 14.5 points per regular-season game against the Warriors with the Kings and only 8.3 since the start of last season.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Harrison Barnes Under 14.5 Points -125 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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