The playoffs haven’t gone the way the Cleveland Cavaliers hoped. They dropped Game 1 at home to the New York Knicks and now find themselves down by two games. Fortunately, DraftKings and FanDuel have left too much value on the Jarrett Allen and Julius Randle player prop markets for Game 5 of the Knicks-Cavaliers series. If you’re looking for more plays, check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Knicks-Cavaliers Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Jarrett Allen
Jarrett Allen O/U 9.5 Rebounds
After tallying 24 rebounds over the first two games of this series, Jarrett Allen nabbed only nine boards in the second two. He slots in as a prime bounce-back candidate for Game 5. Allen averaged 0.8 more rebounds per game at home during the regular season. He also averaged 12.5 per game across two regular-season meetings with the New York Knicks.
The Knicks are a solid rebounding team, but they have benefited from some good fortune. They ranked second in rebound rate in the regular season (52.1%) but currently rank third in the playoffs (52.8%). In contrast, the Cavaliers, who ranked 20th in the metric (49.6%) rank third-worst of the playoff teams (47.2%). The Cavaliers finished their two regular-season games against the Knicks with team rebound rates of 48.9% and 49.4%.
Cleveland’s head coach, J.B. Bickerstaff, has emphasized the team’s struggles on the glass in his recent press conferences. Although the short turnaround between Games 3 and 4 wasn’t conducive to a change in approach, the break between Game 4 and Game 5 is — as is the change in venue. It should help that New York’s team rebound rate falls by 0.7% when playing outside of Madison Square Garden.
Let’s trust Allen in a must-win game for Cleveland. He averaged 9.8 rebounds per game this year and recorded at least 10 in 37 of his 68 appearances (54.4%). He’ll likely see the floor for 36-plus minutes, which should give him the extra opportunities he needs to cash the over. The Cavaliers won’t go down without a fight, and improving on the glass will be a crucial part of their game plan. You can lock in the over at -105 via FanDuel Sportsbook — sign up with them today to score $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Knicks-Cavaliers Player Prop: Jarrett Allen 10+ Rebounds -105 for 0.75 Unit at FanDuel
Knicks-Cavaliers Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Julius Randle
Julius Randle O/U 2.5 Turnovers
The New York Knicks opted to leave Julius Randle on the bench down the stretch in Game 4, and the star power forward wasn’t happy about the decision. He has now failed to clear his regular-season average of 25.1 points per game in each of his four playoff starts against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Still, head coach Tom Thibodeau emphasized the massive role Randle plays for the team in his post-game press conference, and Randle should come out aggressive on Tuesday night.
While Randle should score a more respectable number of points against the Cavaliers than the seven he recorded in Game 4, we’re not backing him to beat his points prop. Instead, we’re targeting him on the turnover markets. Randle has drawn tough coverage from Evan Mobley this series, and Mobley helped the Cavaliers rank fifth in turnovers forced per game from opposing fours (2.8). Randle has averaged 3.3 turnovers per game against Mobley, beating this number in five of their nine meetings.
Randle also struggles on the road. While he averaged 3.3 more points when playing outside of Madison Square Garden in the regular season, he also averaged 0.7 more turnovers, good for 3.2 per away game. Randle’s struggles on the road have extended to his recent matchups with Mobley. He turned the ball over at least four times in each of his starts against Mobley in Cleveland. He totaled a whopping 11 turnovers in Games 1 and 2 of this series.
The books have set Randle’s turnover total at 2.5 after two relatively clean games at home. Surprisingly, the over for this Knicks-Cavaliers player prop sits at only -130 (56.5%) on DraftKings Sportsbook. We’re getting a solid deal for a prop that has hit in Randle’s last four trips to Cleveland. Let’s trust Mobley to get the best of Randle again in a do-or-die matchup for the Cavaliers. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Knicks-Cavaliers Player Prop: Julius Randle Over 2.5 Turnovers -130 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
