Game 1 was tough — we went 1-1 on player props after LeBron James went over on points by one with around a minute left because of a bone-head foul by Michael Porter Jr. We still secured a profit because of our Bruce Brown pick, and I’m confident we’ll find two winners for Game 2. If you’re on the look for sharp NBA player prop bets, consider targeting LeBron James and Aaron Gordon. Need more Lakers-Nuggets player props for Game 2? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Lakers-Nuggets Game 2 NBA Player Prop | LeBron James
LeBron James O/U 25.5 Points
I’m going back to the well with the LeBron James under. The Denver Nuggets foolishly used a switch-heavy approach with James that led Jamal Murray to spend 2:10 covering him, which James turned into plenty of points via made shots and trips to the free-throw line. James racked up 12 points from the floor on 5-for-7 when lined up against Murray. Those shots alone accounted for 46.2% of James’ scoring. He scored a much less impressive six points from the floor on 3-for-6 when lined up against his primary defender, Aaron Gordon.
If Darvin Ham and the Lakers hadn’t tipped their hand by relying on the James-Austin Reaves pick-and-roll action in the second half, I’d be all over those two for Game 2. But they did, and the Nuggets will have a chance to respond on Thursday. Michael Malone can’t let Murray switch onto James as much as he did in Game 1 if he wants to win the series. Fortunately, the Nuggets have two easy fixes — either encouraging Gordon to fight through screens, which he started doing more deep in the fourth, or switching Kentavious Caldwell-Pope onto Reaves and hiding Murray on D’Angelo Russell.
I could be wrong about Malone’s response to Game 1. He could end up trusting Murray on switches and hoping that James makes fewer contested shots — he went an impressive 8-for-11 (72.7%) when his shots were challenged. But Murray likely accounted for a sizeable share of makes, and a smart coach like Malone should pivot. James is averaging only 23.6 points per game in the postseason and 22.8 on the road. He has gone over this number in just two of his seven road playoff starts. Let’s lock in the under at -115 (53.5%) via DraftKings. If you’re yet to sign up for DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 moneyline wager.
Best Lakers-Nuggets Player Prop: LeBron James Under 25.5 Points -115 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Lakers-Nuggets Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Aaron Gordon
Aaron Gordon O/U 0.5 Blocks
We’re applying our insight into Denver’s defense and LeBron James by backing this Aaron Gordon bet. If the Nuggets are less willing to switch Gordon off James, Gordon is likelier to swat shots. Of James’ 26 points in Game 1, 53.8% came in the paint. He leaned on his ability to back Murray down and get to the rim. That should lead Malone to have Gordon fight through more screens or ensure he can switch off his man and bail Murray out near the basket. Let’s trust Gordon to play a more aggressive role on the defensive end in Game 2.
We’re also getting some exposure to Gordon because of his splits — both his regular-season performances against the Los Angeles Lakers and his home-away split point to value here. Gordon racked up a whopping nine blocks against the Lakers across four regular-season starts, good for 2.3 per game, including 3 per game in Ball Arena. Gordon also averaged 0.75 blocks per game in the regular season but 0.8 per game at home. His failure to get a block in Game 1 wasn’t for a lack of defensive intensity or effort.
The books have soured on Gordon as a defender because of his relative inability to get blocks in the postseason. He is averaging only 0.5 blocks per game in the playoffs and has recorded one in only four of his 12 starts. However, his previous series came against teams that are less reliant on interior scoring than the Lakers — only 61% of the Timberwolves’ field goal attempts came from inside the arc, and only 40.6% of the Suns’ points came from within the paint. Let’s trust Gordon to look more like his regular-season self against a Lakers team that depends on cutting to the rim to score points.
Best Lakers-Nuggets Player Prop: Aaron Gordon Over 0.5 Blocks +105 for 1 Unit BetMGM
