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Categories NBA

Best NBA Player Props: Tail This Profitable Nikola Vucevic Trend Against Joel Embiid (March 22)

March 22, 2023 | 12:29 PM by Isaiah Sirois
Check out our NBA picks today, featuring NBA best bets and +EV plays backed by a market-based approached, stats and more.

The NBA remains at the forefront of the basketball stage with Wednesday night’s loaded card. Meaningful basketball action abounds as teams look to assert themselves in the playoff hunt. Bettors searching for tonight’s best NBA player prop picks, especially for Nuggets-Wizards and 76ers-Bulls, should tail the predictions below. FanDuel has left too much value on the Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Nikola Vucevic player prop markets. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!

 

Best Nuggets-Wizards NBA Player Prop Tonight | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope O/U 1.5 3-Pointers 

The Denver Nuggets find themselves in a bit of a slump. They are 5-5 through the last 10 games and have seen their leader, Nikola Jokic, fall behind Joel Embiid in the MVP race. Concerning losses to the Toronto Raptors, Brooklyn Nets, San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls adorn their game log. They’ll look to get back on track with a matchup against the Washington Wizards this evening, who just lost to the Orlando Magic last night.

The NBA’s schedule-makers have handed the Wizards three back-to-back sets since the All-Star Break, and they haven’t gone well. Washington lost each of those contests while surrendering 18.7 3-pointers per game, significantly higher than their season average (11.9). Wings absolutely cooked them — Sacramento’s Keegan Murray and Malik Monk both nailed five triples apiece, Atlanta’s John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic hit four and two, respectively, and Milwaukee’s Grayson Allen, Joe Ingles and Pat Connaughton combined for 10.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should benefit the most from tonight’s matchup. Washington’s inability to defend the wing on limited rest should allow him to hoist up plenty of poorly defended shots. KCP leads the Nuggets in corner 3’s made (0.8) and attempted (1.8) per game this year and is averaging 1.8 3-pointers per game this year. The over costs +104 at Pinnacle, a sharp book, so let’s lock in the +120 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can score a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!

Best Nuggets-Wizards Player Prop: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 3-Pointers (+116 for 0.75 Unit) at FanDuel

Best 76ers-Bulls NBA Player Prop Tonight | Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic O/U 1.5 3-Pointers  

Those who tail this column also targeted Nikola Vucevic against the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday. Vucevic shot 1-for-2 from the perimeter against Joel Embiid in that game, but his career average against the veteran big man still sits at 1.8 3-pointers made per game on 4.4 attempts, good for a 41.4% conversion rate. The Bulls return to Chicago for this matchup, and Vucevic shot 5-for-7 from beyond the arc the last time he faced Embiid on his home floor.

Price discrepancies in the market underpinned this play on Monday. Pinnacle set the over to -126 while other books left it at +100. Pinnacle has since raised the price to +118, but public books like FanDuel Sportsbook have overcorrected by listing it at +125. Tonight’s NBA player prop for Vucevic has a 56.3% hit rate in games between these players yet owns implied odds of only 44.4% at FanDuel. Vucevic has hit the over in eight of his last 11 games against Embiid.

Although it’s frustrating to hit the same prop twice, especially after it loses once, sharp bettors know to trust long-term trends over short-term reactions. Placing the same amount on this Vucevic prop as we did on Monday still allows us to net a profit because of the current price. Vucevic’s shot volume in Monday’s game wasn’t great, but Vucevic is yet to go more than three games without hitting multiple 3-pointers this year. Expect him to do a little more shooting on Wednesday night.

Best 76ers-Bulls Player Prop: Nikola Vucevic 2+ 3-Pointers (+125 for 0.75 Unit) at FanDuel

Categories NBA
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Isaiah Sirois

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a sports betting analyst at OddsShopper specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar on Sundays. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University and briefly attended Vanderbilt Law School before dropping out to work at OddsShopper.

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