The All-Star Break is a time for reflection — reflection on the standings, on the awards races, on whether the All-Star Game is a complete waste of time … Well, today we’re focusing on the awards reflections, specifically one of the more interesting races: NBA Defensive Player of the Year. You may think this race is over — and maybe it is — but young stud Victor Wembanyama is at least making us do a double-take. So let’s examine it; does Victor Wembanyama have a shot at Defensive Player of the Year, and are his odds worth betting?
Victor Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year Odds
NBA DPOY Odds
| Player | Odds |
| Rudy Gobert | -650 |
| Jarrett Allen | +1000 |
| Victor Wembanyama | +2500 |
| Chet Holmgren | +2500 |
| Bam Adebayo | +3000 |
| Derrick White | +3000 |
| Anthony Davis | +3500 |
Just one look at the odds tells you all you need to know about Wembanyama’s (or anyone’s, really) chances of unseating Rudy Gobert. Gobert is not putting up high-end block numbers or anything — his 2.1 per game rank eighth in the league and are well behind the 3.2 of Wembanyama — but the eye test says it all: The Timberwolves are an elite defense because they have Gobert.
Minnesota is No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating, 2.1 points per 100 possessions better than second-place Cleveland, and the reality is that Gobert simply does not get the chance to block shots because his mere presence is enough of a deterrent. He has been, flat out, the most impactful defensive player this year.
So yeah, Gobert is deserving, and Wembanyama and Jarrett Allen probably are not creeping into this race, barring injury. But Gobert’s DPOY odds are -650. We are not betting him at those odds unless it’s part of a futures parlay. So let’s see how the field, particularly Wembanyama, could make this more interesting.
Wemby: Is He A True Dark Horse?
Starting with Wembanyama, the cases both for and against are pretty clear: No one blocks shots at a higher rate, but also the Spurs aren’t that good on defense whether he is on the floor or not. They rank 23rd in the league in defensive rating this year, for context.
But here’s the rub: Per Cleaning the Glass, Wembanyama’s on/off stats place him in the 98th percentile in terms of how much more efficient defensively the Spurs are when he plays. That means he is already among the elite defensive players in basketball.
As for Gobert? He is in the 94th percentile — also elite, but a hair behind Wembanyama.
The blocks in particular are probably going to carry Wembanyama’s candidacy this year, especially in the wake of his recent 10-block game. We’re now talking about a rookie leading the league in blocks per game despite playing fewer minutes than other leaders like Gobert and Anthony Davis. His 5.4 blocks per 48 minutes are 1.2 more than second place (Chet Holmgren and Brook Lopez) and 2.4 more than Gobert, who is sixth. This is a historically great defensive season period, let alone rookie season.
And if the Spurs were even a little competitive, he would be giving Gobert a run for his money.
Alas, Gobert is having a historically great season himself, and he has the team results to prove it on top of the individual stats. It will probably take an injury to get anyone else into this race, and Wembanyama also has to jump at least one other guy in the DPOY odds pecking order …
The Other Contenders and Their DPOY Odds
Holmgren is also getting good pub as a rookie with high-end block numbers, and though he may not be quite as flashy as Wembanyama, the Thunder are going to help his case. Oklahoma City is the No. 2 seed in the West and has the fourth-ranked defensive rating. Now, there are a lot of great defenders on that team. However, Holmgren is the anchor, and his block rates are not all that far back of Wembanyama’s. Plus, though Wembanyama has started pulling away in the Rookie of the Year Race, Holmgren has been either first or second since the start of the season, largely because of his defensive impact.
The two rookies currently have the same DPOY odds at +2500. Time will tell how that moves or if either can make a late charge, but both are still well behind Gobert and one other center: Jarrett Allen.
Popularity-wise, Allen is not close to the other three. However, he took advantage of his time without Evan Mobley playing next to him to establish himself as the cornerstone of the Cavaliers resurgence, and now Cleveland is the second seed in the East.
No team in the NBA, not even the Timberwolves, has a better defensive rating over the last 15 games. That is largely because of Allen.
The blocks, or lack thereof, are what hurts Allen’s case. He is only averaging 1.2 a game, and there is certainly some Gobert to him in that he denies shots by simply being close to the rim, but Gobert is still blocking over two shots a game. Allen is well behind every other top candidate.
But you cannot deny his impact and the Cavaliers’ success as a result.
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The Verdict: Anyone Other Than Gobert for DPOY?
Succinctly, yes — there are better bets than Gobert, if for no other reason than he could get hurt and now you have a Wembanyama ticket at +2500. Are the chances of anyone else winning high? Not at all. Is Wembanyama’s momentum going to make him a true candidate at any point if Gobert stays healthy? Probably not. Is he still worth a very small swing at +2500, banking on a Gobert slip in performance and enough public sentiment to get Wembanyama some juice? Sure, why not. Let’s have some fun with awards that seem all but done — you never know.
