The 2022-23 NBA season is well underway, and legitimate threats to win this year’s Most Valuable Player Award have begun to emerge. The NBA MVP traditionally goes to players who stuff box scores with counting stats, especially points, so identifying the league’s top performers can be a great way to find value in this NBA MVP odds market.
2022-23 NBA Most Valuable Player Odds
NBA MVP Odds: Players to Buy
Luka Doncic (+300) at BetMGM
Doncic is just barely a buy at this point in the year, and only because the market can't decide where to set his line. The books setting it at +275 or lower have it right -- Doncic has slightly better than 3-1 odds to win this year's MVP Award. He leads the NBA in scoring, ranks fourth in assists per game and ranks 22nd in rebounds per game. With Jalen Brunson off to New York, the Mavericks need Doncic to play a high-volume role that is conducive to him taking home the Maurice Podoloff Trophy.
Basketball Reference's MVP Award model, which correctly favored Nikola Jokic the last two seasons, gives Doncic the second-best odds to win at 16.7%. The model uses previous voting results and player stats to reach its conclusions. However, the model may not account for voters not wishing to hand out the award to the same player three years in a row. So while the model may not advise buying Doncic at implied odds of 25%, such a bet should still offer a positive return on investment.
Anthony Davis (+2500) at DraftKings
Davis was available at 70-1 just yesterday. OddsShopper Premium Insider Access members received a tip on that line from Greg Ehrenberg last night. FanDuel has since shut down their NBA MVP futures markets and it seems unlikely that Davis will re-open at odds nearly that long. Still, bettors can find a bit of value -- albeit much less -- on Davis at odds of 25-1. Basketball Reference's model would price Davis at +1900.
Davis leads the NBA in rebounds per game and ranks eighth in scoring. He also ranks second in blocks per game. Although MVP voters like high-scoring players, rebounding has proven crucial in recent years. Each of the last four MVPs finished top-1o in rebounding and averaged at least a double-double per game. The most recent MVP to not be a top-10 rebounder, James Harden, needed to lead the association in scoring by a two-point margin and finish top-six in both assists and steals per game.
Nikola Jokic (+3300) at BetMGM
The books are probably sleeping too much on Jokic's odds of a three-peat. He finished inside the top 10 in points, rebounds and assists in each of his back-to-back MVP campaigns. Although his scoring has fallen off this year, he still ranks 17th in points per game. He also ranks 11th in rebounds per game and third in assists per game. Although Jokic will likely need to step up his game to hoist the Maurice Podoloff Trophy again, it's well within his range of outcomes.
The 23.9% awarded to Jokic by Basketball Reference's model feels a bit inflated, but it correctly favored him despite Joel Embiid drawing steam last year. Three-time winners aren't without precedent either. Despite Jokic's worse counting stats, he still leads in FiveThirtyEight's wins above replacement metric, just as he did in both of his MVP seasons. The model would set Jokic's odds all the way down at +241, so buying in at +3300 feels sharp.
NBA MVP Odds: Players to Sell
Jayson Tatum (+275) at BetMGM
Yes, the Boston Celtics and Tatum have looked fantastic this year. No, that doesn't make Tatum a smart bet at odds of +275 or lower. The best argument for Tatum would be his strong offensive contributions, but he ranks only fifth in points per game (sixth if Embiid's limited season is counted) and sits well outside the top 25 in both rebounds and assists.
Tatum faces an uphill battle for this award because the Celtics play good team basketball. Tatum probably won't see the volume required for him to win this award, especially when his competition includes franchise cornerstones in Doncic and Nikola Jokic. Tatum finished sixth in MVP Award voting last year but earned far fewer points than those two. Look for voters two back others at Tatum's expense again this season. Basketball Reference's model would price Tatum at odds of +514 -- still solid odds, but not close to where he is trading at now.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+300) at BetMGM
Antetokounmpo, a two-time NBA MVP Award winner, isn't a sharp bet to win the award again this year. Although he currently ranks second in scoring and fifth in rebounding, both numbers are likely to regress with Khris Middleton back in the lineup for Milwaukee. Antetokounmpo's volume should only decrease from here on out.
Despite Middleton's return, Antetokounmpo remains one of the front-runners for this year's Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Antetokounmpo's current odds, which sit at 25%, are probably as high as they're going to get this year. Basketball Reference's model respects what Giannis has done this year, but it would price him at +537, nearly double where his current line sits. Prospective Giannis backers who are yet to place a wager on the big man to win MVP should hold until the market adjusts.
