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NBA Odds, Injuries, Trends & Picks Today: You Like Jazz? (March 4)

After a solid slate of action on Sunday, including what was almost a miraculous comeback win for the Phoenix Suns, we’re onto a much less exciting Monday. We’ve got two nationally televised games on NBA TV, but the road teams in both matchups are on the wrong end of a back-to-back. Sit back, relax and enjoy the analysis as we dive into today’s NBA odds, injuries and trends in hopes of finding one or two NBA picks. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.

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NBA Odds, Injuries & Trends Today: Monday, March 4 | Odds via BetMGM

This article was originally written at 3 a.m. ET; line movement notes from 11:30 a.m. ET.

MEM: +340 | BKN: -450
MEM +9.5: -110 | BKN -9.5: -110
Over 206.5: -110 | Under 206.5: -110
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET

The Memphis Grizzlies will visit the Brooklyn Nets in the first game on Monday’s card. The Grizzlies are listing Jaren Jackson Jr. as doubtful, so with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart all still out, they’re working with a glorified G-League roster. The Nets are healthy aside from Cam Thomas (out) and Ben Simmons (questionable), so another a heavy dose of Dennis Schröder is likely on tap. The Nets will also host the Philadelphia 76ers tomorrow.

The Grizzlies were one of the NBA’s biggest disappointments this season, but they’re a not-terrible 29-32 ATS, which is marginally better than the Nets at 27-30-3 ATS. Memphis even improves to 17-13 ATS as a road dog. However, the recent absence of Jackson proved too much to bear in their recent home series against the Portland Trail Blazers, as they lost two games by an average of 18.5 points. Brooklyn is a solid 17-12-3 ATS at home. The Nets have also covered in three of their last four games.

Line movement notes: The Nets’ advantage has grown by a point. The total has dipped by four.

LAC: +170 | MIL: -210
LAC +5.5: -115 | MIL -5.5: -105
Over 226.5: -105 | Under 226.5: -115
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 3 a.m. ET

The Milwaukee Bucks get to host the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday. The Clippers just played the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday, so we won’t get an injury report from them until mid-afternoon. Point guard Russell Westbrook will miss this one (and likely the next several) with a hand fracture. The Bucks listed Khris Middleton (out) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (questionable) on their injury report.

The Clippers have gone a steady 31-28 ATS this season, far better than the 26-34-1 ATS Bucks. However, Milwaukee’s decision to swap head coaches at midseason has proven sharp — the Bucks have covered in their last five games and are 8-7 ATS since bringing him on board. On the other side, the Clippers have covered in their last two games but are 6-8 ATS since the start of February. A lack of rest hasn’t been an issue for them, as they’re 5-4 ATS without rest, and the Bucks’ 3-10 ATS record with a rest advantage is nothing to worry about, either.

Line movement notes: The spread hasn’t moved, but the moneyline has moved in Milwaukee’s favor. The total has dipped by a point.

POR: +750 | MIN: -1200
POR +13.5: -105 | MIN -13.5: -115
Over 210.5: -110 | Under 210.5: -110
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 3 a.m. ET

It’s not often that you see a team on the second leg of a back-to-back listed as a 14.5-point favorite (now 13.5), but that’s where the Minnesota Timberwolves are trading. We’ll have to wait for their injury report, but Rudy Gobert or Mike Conley could get the night off. Their opponents, the Portland Trail Blazers, remain without Scoot Henderson and Malcolm Brogdon. Other injuries include Jerami Grant (doubtful), Deandre Ayton (questionable) and Matisse Thybulle (questionable).

Portland may be one of the NBA’s worst teams in the win column, but the Trail Blazers are a bit better against the spread, as they’ve gone 27-32 ATS this season. Minnesota is 30-29-2 ATS this season, dipping to 4-4 ATS without rest, 5-6-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage and 11-14-2 ATS as a home favorite. Two silver linings for Minnesota: the Trail Blazers are only 7-11 ATS with a rest advantage, and the Timberwolves are an NBA-best 12-6 ATS after a loss.

Line movement notes: Both the Wolves’ advantage and the total have dipped by a point.

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Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz NBA Odds, Injuries & Trends

WAS: +180 | UTA: -225
WAS +5.5: -105 | UTA -5.5: -115
Over 240.5: -110 | Under 240.5: -110
Game Time: 9 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 3 a.m. ET

The Utah Jazz are now 5.5 games behind the Los Angeles Lakers for the final play-in tournament bid, so tonight’s game against the Washington Wizards feels like a must-win spot for them. The 9-51 Wizards are now tied with the Detroit Pistons for the NBA’s worst record, so the Jazz should get the job done — but big-name injuries to Walker Kessler (out) and Lauri Markkanen (out) could make the task more difficult.

The Jazz are neither a deep nor a good team, but they’re a profitable 32-28-1 ATS this season, and they’re a dominant 19-10 ATS at home. The Wizards are bad, but because we all know they’re bad, the books have priced them accordingly. Washington is 28-31-1 ATS and a surprising 19-21-1 ATS on the road. That’s with an average margin of -9.3, but hey, when you’re a double-digit road dog as often as they are, losing by nine is enough to cover. Unfortunately, the Wizards haven’t covered a single-digit spread since January.

Line movement notes: The Jazz’s advantage has ticked down by a point. The total has ticked up by two.

Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings NBA Odds, Injuries & Trends

CHI: +200 | SAC: -250
CHI +6.5: -110 | SAC -6.5: -110
Over 227.5: -110 | Under 227.5: -110
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 3 a.m. ET

Two years ago, the Chicago Bulls were the next big thing for a few months. The Sacramento Kings found themselves in that spot last year. Now, both squads are competing for play-in bids. The Kings’ injury report isn’t great, with De’Aaron Fox (questionable) iffy. The Bulls are a bit healthier (well, aside from the season-ending injuries to Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams) — Alex Caruso (questionable) is also iffy.

The Bulls and Kings both have winning records against the spread but barely. Sacramento is 30-28-1 ATS while Chicago is 31-28-1. The Kings regress to a brutal 11-15 ATS at home and are 10-14 ATS as a home favorite. The Bulls are a steady 16-13 ATS as an away team but are only 10-11 ATS as a road underdog. Sacramento is 4-4 ATS without Fox this season.

Line movement notes: The spread and total are unchanged, but Chicago made up some ground on the moneyline.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers NBA Odds & Trends

OKC: -105 | LAL: -115
OKC +1.5 -115 | LAL -1.5: -115
Over 239.5: -105 | Under 239.5: -115
Game Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 3 a.m. ET

LeBron James (questionable) reached the 40,000-point threshold for his career in a loss to the Denver Nuggets on Saturday. He now gets the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are coming off a win over the Phoenix Suns on Sunday, which means we’ll have to wait for their injury report. Anthony Davis (probable) and Cam Reddish (probable) are the other names to know as far as Los Angeles’ injuries go.

The Thunder remain the NBA’s best team at covering the spread. If you had blindly bet $100 on them to cover every game at odds of -110 over the last three years, you’d be up $3,412. This year has been more of the same, as they’re sitting at 38-21-1 ATS. The Lakers are 28-25 ATS this season, and, if you had placed the same $100 bets on them to cover every game over the last three seasons, you’d be $2,717 poorer. This year’s Lakers are 13-17 ATS at home and 3-8 ATS with a rest advantage. This year’s Thunder are 7-3 ATS without rest and are an NBA-best 11-3 ATS with a rest disadvantage.

Line movement notes: The markets for this game haven’t moved much from where they opened.

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NBA Picks Today: Monday, March 4

As much as I want to bet on the Thunder, they’re not my top NBA pick for today’s slate of games. That honor belongs to the shorthanded Utah Jazz. Sure, not having Markkanen will hurt. They’re also playing an absolute corpse of a team that can’t cover anything but a double-digit spread.

The Wizards’ season ended long ago. Sure, Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole and others are auditioning for roles on other teams but Washington’s complete inability to play defense will likely hand the Jazz another big home win.

The Jazz may be down, but unlike the Wizards, they are not out. To whip out some more trends, Utah is 17-15-1 ATS after a loss and 8-4 ATS as a home favorite this season. Back them to cover the -6 at DraftKings — most other books are already up to 6.5. I like Utah up to -7.

NBA Pick Today: UTA -6 -110 at DraftKings

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