Wednesday’s NBA slate offers a pair of televised games: the Los Angeles Clippers will visit the Houston Rockets early on ESPN before the Milwaukee Bucks visit the Golden State Warriors late. Neither one of those games makes for today’s top NBA pick, however. Let’s break down today’s slate and dive into today’s NBA odds, injuries and trends in hopes of finding one or two NBA picks. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Odds, Trends & Picks Today
NBA Odds & Trends Today: Wednesday, March 6 | Odds via BetMGM
This article was originally written at 1 a.m. ET; line movement notes from 10:30 a.m. ET.
Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards NBA Odds & Trends
ORL: -300 | WAS: +240
ORL -7.5: -105 | WAS +7.5: -115
Over 224.5: -110 | Under 224.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Orlando Magic just beat the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday, and we’ve already got an injury report from them. Gary Harris (questionable) and Jonathan Isaac (questionable) are the two names to know. They’ll line up against the Washington Wizards on Wednesday. Marvin Bagley III (out) is on the injury report for the Wiz, leaving Richaun Holmes likely to start at the five for them.
The Magic have been the NBA’s most profitable team against the spread this season. They sit at an impressive 41-21 ATS this year. They’re only 20-13 ATS on the road and 6-6 ATS without rest, which isn’t good. The Wizards are 28-32-1 ATS, which is not great, and they’re NBA-worst 9-19 ATS at home. They’re a slightly less terrible 8-16 ATS as a home dog, but it’s still been hard to trust them in D.C.
Line movement notes: The spread and moneyline have moved marginally in Orlando’s favor. The total hasn’t budged.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks NBA Odds & Trends
CLE: +105 | ATL: -130
CLE +1.5: -105 | ATL -1.5: -115
Over 215.5: -105 | Under 215.5: -115
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Cleveland Cavaliers pulled off a huge upset over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday despite the absences of Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus. The Trae Young-less Atlanta Hawks took down the Jalen Brunson-less New York Knicks on Wednesday, too, meaning both squads won’t have to release an injury report until this afternoon. Mitchell and Young are both likely out for this one, too, as is Evan Mobley, who got hurt on Tuesday.
The Hawks have been awful at covering this year, as they’re an NBA-worst 20-41 ATS. They’re even only 10-21 ATS at home. The Cavs have been a bit better at covering, sitting at 30-29-2 ATS and 15-13-1 ATS on the road. Cleveland is 3-6-1 ATS without rest while Atlanta is 3-7 ATS without rest. The spread has already moved by a point in Atlanta’s favor, and a likely concerning injury report for Cleveland could make the Hawks an even larger favorite.
Line movement notes: The spread and moneyline have moved slightly in Cleveland’s favor. The total has dropped by two.
Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers NBA Odds & Trends
MEM: +180 | PHI: -225
MEM +5.5: -105 | PHI -5.5: -115
Over 212.5: -105 | Under 212.5: -115
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The injury-plagued Memphis Grizzlies will take on the similarly injury-plagued Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday. The Grizz got a night off, but the 76ers just fell to the Brooklyn Nets. They were without Tyrese Maxey, who may or may not remain out due to his concussion evaluation. The Grizzlies won’t have Ja Morant, Desmond Bane or Marcus Smart but could get Jaren Jackson Jr. (questionable) back.
The 76ers have been one of the best teams against the spread this year, but it’s hard to give them credit for that if neither Maxey nor Joel Embiid are playing. They sit at an impressive 33-28-1 ATS, which, again, is impressive, but I can’t trust them to extend that streak. They dip to 17-15 ATS at home, too. The Grizzlies are a brutal 30-32 ATS but jump to 18-13 ATS on the road.
Line movement notes: The spread and moneyline haven’t moved. The total has ticked up by three.
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Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets NBA Odds & Trends
LAC: -275 | HOU: +220
LAC -6.5: -110 | HOU +6.5: -110
Over 224.5: -115 | Under 224.5: -105
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Houston Rockets just scored a nice win over the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, but they’ll now have to play the Los Angeles Clippers today. The Rockets still technically have an outside shot at the play-in tournament, but they’re running out of time to close the gap. We’ll have to wait for an injury report from them. The relatively healthy Clippers are only without Russell Westbrook due to a broken hand.
Still, the Clippers will have to play the Rockets in Houston, where Ime Udoka’s team has gone a dominant 20-10-1 ATS — and 10-5-1 ATS as a home dog. The Clippers are a solid 16-15 ATS on the road this year, improving to 12-9 ATS as a road favorite. The Rockets are an okay 6-4-1 ATS without rest, but the Clippers are an even more impressive 9-4 ATS with a rest advantage.
Line movement notes: The spread and moneyline have moved marginally in Los Angeles’ favor. The total hasn’t budged.
Chicago Bulls at Utah Jazz NBA Odds & Trends
CHI: -165 | UTA: +135
CHI -3.5: -110 | UTA +3.5: -110
Over 223.5: -110 | Under 223.5: -110
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Chicago Bulls will visit the Utah Jazz on Wednesday. The Bulls and Jazz are both coming off wins, which came over the Kings and Wizards, respectively. Torrey Craig (doubtful) is trending toward returning but probably won’t be back for this one. Keyonte George (questionable), Taylor Hendricks (out), Lauri Markkanen (out) and Walker Kessler (out) are all on the injury report for Utah.
The Bulls (32-28-1 ATS) and Jazz (33-28-1 ATS) have both been pretty solid at covering the spread this season, but the Jazz are dominant at home. They’re sitting at 20-10 ATS in Salt Lake City this year and are 11-6 ATS as home dogs, but it’s hard to trust them with so many key pieces sidelined and the lottery looking like a likelier outcome than the play-in tournament. The Bulls are a solid 17-13 ATS on the road, but they’re only 11-11 ATS as a road dog, and they’ll have to play again tomorrow.
Line movement notes: The spread and moneyline have moved in Utah’s favor by two points. The total has ticked down by one.
Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors NBA Odds & Trends
MIL: +140 | GSW: -165
MIL +3.5 -105 | GSW -3.5: -115
Over 227.5: -105 | Under 227.5: -115
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Milwaukee Bucks are a very slight road dogs to the Golden State Warriors for Wednesday’s action. The Bucks have a lengthy injury report, including Giannis Antetokounmpo (questionable), Khris Middleton (out) and Jae Crowder (probable). Meanwhile, the Warriors enter this one with a clean bill of health, but they’ll have to play again tomorrow, which could complicate their rotations.
The Dubs have been profitable for spread bettors this year, as they sit at 33-26-1 ATS on the year. They drop to 13-17-1 ATS at home, however, including 9-15 ATS as a home favorite. That’s arguably better than what we’ve seen from Milwaukee. The Bucks are 27-34-1 ATS this season and 13-17 ATS as a road team. They’re also an NBA-worst 2-4 ATS as a road dog.
Line movement notes: The spread and moneyline have moved marginally in Milwaukee’s favor. The total has moved slightly in favor of the under.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers NBA Odds & Trends
OKC: -1000 | POR: +625
OKC -13.5: -110 | POR +13.5: -110
Over 224.5: -105 | Under 224.5: -115
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter Wednesday’s road game versus the Portland Trail Blazers as an 11.5-point road favorite. The Thunder are relatively healthy, but the Blazers have a lengthy injury report for this one, including Toumani Camara (questionable), Jerami Grant (questionable), Matisse Thybulle (questionable), Deandre Ayton (doubtful) and Scoot Henderson (out).
The Thunder have been the most profitable team against the spread over the last three seasons, as they’re sitting at 132-87-8 ATS over that span. They’re 33-22-1 ATS this season but regress to 17-13-1 ATS as a road team and 10-10 ATS as a road favorite. The Blazers are a tough 28-32 ATS this season and drop to 11-18 ATS as a home team.
Line movement notes: The spread and moneyline have moved marginally in Oklahoma City’s favor. The total hasn’t budged.
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers Odds & Trends
SAC: +115 | LAL: -140
SAC +2.5: -115 | LAL -2.5: -105
Over 238.5: -110 | Under 238.5: -110
Game Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1 a.m. ET
In the slate’s nightcap, the Sacramento Kings will visit the Los Angeles Lakers. The Kings have a relatively clean bill of health while the Lakers list both Anthony Davis (probable) and LeBron James (questionable) on the injury report, along with Cam Reddish (probable), Gabe Vincent (out), Jarred Vanderbilt (out) and Christian Wood (out).
The Lakers have been brutal for spread bettors this season, going 29-35 ATS and 14-17 ATS at home. The Kings are an acceptable 30-29-1 ATS this year and improve to 19-13-1 ATS on the road. They’re a solid 11-7 ATS as a road dog. The Kings do have another game scheduled for Thursday, as they’ll host the San Antonio Spurs, but the Lakers get a night off before hosting the Bucks on Friday.
Line movement notes: The spread and moneyline have moved in Sacramento’s favor. The total hasn’t budged.
NBA Picks Today: Wednesday, March 6
I’m plugging my nose and backing the Atlanta Hawks to win outright on Wednesday for today’s top NBA pick. The Cavs won’t have Donovan Mitchell and almost certainly won’t have Evan Mobley and may not even have Max Strus. Neither team has been great without rest this season, but the Cavs are just too shorthanded to pull this one out.
The Hawks aren’t a great basketball team, especially on the defensive end, but the Cavs lack the offensive firepower to exploit Atlanta’s lack of quality defensive players. Atlanta should outscore a Cleveland squad whose defensive rating drops by 2.9 points per 100 possessions when Mobley is off the floor, especially with the undersized Dean Wade likely to play as the backup five.
The Cavs managed to beat the Celtics despite the injury to Mobley, but the Hawks’ fast-paced offense may prove too much for them to handle without rest. The Hawks are treading water in the play-in race, and a win over the shorthanded Cavs would go a long way to keeping their hopes alive.
NBA Pick Today: ATL ML -130 at DraftKings
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