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NBA Odds, Trends & Picks Today: OKC Has Nothing to Lose (February 13)

As we shift into the post-Super Bowl world, the NBA takes over the sports betting landscape. Tomorrow’s card presents us with a six-game slate, including a pair of NBA on TNT games. We’ve got the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Orlando Magic on the early slate and the Sacramento Kings at the Phoenix Suns on the late card. Sit back, relax and enjoy the analysis as we dive into today’s NBA odds and trends in hopes of finding one or two picks. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.

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NBA Odds Today: Tuesday, February 13 | Odds via BetMGM

BOS: -175 | BKN: +290
BOS -8.5: -110 | BKN +8.5: -110
Over 229.5: -105 | Under 229.5: -115
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1:30 a.m. ET

The Boston Celtics will visit the Brooklyn Nets early on Tuesday evening. Both of these teams will be back in action against each other again tomorrow, but next time, they’ll be in Boston. The Celtics listed Kristaps Porzingis (questionable) on the injury report due to a back issue. Their two trade acquisitions, Jaden Springer and Xavier Tillman Sr., both remain out.

The Nets are relatively healthy with only Cameron Johnson on the injury report, but the books don’t expect that to give them an edge versus the Celtics. Boston leads the NBA in net rating (+9.5), far ahead of 20th-ranked Brooklyn (-1.3). However, the Nets showed some life right after the deadline, with Dennis Schröder adding a spark off the bench, tallying 15 points, 12 assists and three rebounds.

Trends-wise, the Nets are have gone a losing 24-26-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, but they’re up to 15-12-2 ATS at home, but they’re an underwhelming 6-9-2 ATS as a home dog. The Celtics are only 24-27-2 ATS this year with a 10-13-2 ATS record on the road and a 9-12-2 ATS record as a road dog.

OKC: -140 | ORL: +115
OKC -2.5: -110 | ORL +2.5: -110
Over 226.5: -110 | Under 226.5: -110
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1:30 a.m. ET

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a road date with the Orlando Magic on Tuesday. The Thunder played a back-to-back on Saturday and Sunday, so their game on Tuesday is their last one before the All-Star Break. The Magic aren’t so lucky as they’ll have to play again tomorrow, but they’ve got a clean injury report. The Thunder have a few names listed but no big ones.

The Thunder are a narrow road favorite. They’re also the NBA’s second-best team at covering with a record 32-20-1 ATS. They’re second to only the Magic, who are 35-18 ATS. Orlando is an impressive 18-9 ATS at home while Oklahoma City is a not-so-impressive 14-11-1 ATS — and a losing 7-8 ATS as a road favorite.

Oklahoma City has put together an impressive season and ranks second in net rating (+7.2). Orlando ranks 15th (+0.9). Both teams have fallen off lately, though — over the last seven, Oklahoma City ranks 13th (+0.9) and Orlando ranks 10th (+2.5).

MIA: +260 | MIL: -350
MIA +8.5: -115 | MIL -8.5: -105
Over 226.5: -110 | Under 226.5: -110
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1:30 a.m. ET

The Miami Heat draw the Milwaukee Buck on Tuesday evening. The Bucks are coming off a huge home win over the Denver Nuggets on Monday. The Heat will visit the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday and have already ruled out Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson for Tuesday. Duncan Robinson is also questionable.

The Heat and Bucks have both been disappointing this season. The Heat sit at 24-28-1 ATS while the Bucks sit at 21-32-1 ATS. Miami improves to a still not-profitable 12-16 ATS at home. Milwaukee slips to 9-16 ATS on the road but is a slightly better 8-12 ATS as a home favorite. Milwaukee is a decent 5-4 ATS without rest, though.

The Bucks rank ninth in net rating (+3.7) while the Heat rank 18th (-0.3). Milwaukee also ranks ninth over the last seven (+2.8) while Miami improves to eighth (+4.1). They even kept pace with the Celtics on Sunday despite missing Butler for that one, too.

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Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns NBA Odds & Trends

SAC: +165 | PHX: -200
SAC +5.5: -115 | PHX -5.5: -105
Over 244.5: -110 | Under 244.5: -110
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1:30 a.m. ET

The Phoenix Suns will host the Sacramento Kings in what should be a win for the home team. Like most teams playing on Tuesday, both of these squads will also play again on Wednesday — Phoenix hosts Detroit; Sacramento visits Denver. Both squads are healthy, as only Sacramento’s Sasha Vezenkov (out) and Chris Duarte (questionable) are injured.

That means Bradley Beal is available for this one despite his nose injury, and when the Suns have their Big Three, they’re pretty good. Phoenix may rank only 11th in net rating on the year (+3.1), but the squad ranks fourth over the last 15 (+7.8) and the last seven (+10.3). Meanwhile, Sacramento ranks 17th on the year (+0.5) and 18th over the last seven (-1).

Relative to the market, Sacramento has been the better team. The Kings are 27-24-1 ATS this season while Phoenix is only 21-30-2 ATS. Phoenix is only 9-17-1 ATS at home, third-worst in the NBA, while Sacramento is 16-11-1 ATS on the road, fifth-best. The Suns are 8-14-1 ATS as a home favorite. The Kings are a solid 8-5 ATS as a road underdog.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers NBA Odds & Trends

MIN: -375 | POR: +290
MIN -8.5: -110 | POR +8.5: -110
Over 216.5: -110 | Under 216.5: -110
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1:30 a.m. ET

The Minnesota Timberwolves just beat up the Los Angeles Clippers last night, but they’ll now have to face the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. Portland has been off since losing on Saturday. These teams will run this matchup back on Thursday. Malcolm Brogdon (out), Scoot Henderson (questionable) and Anfernee Simons (probable) are all on the injury report.

Minnesota has been a surprisingly impressive team this season as their big win over the Clippers proves. The Timberwolves rank third in net rating (+6.4) and first in defensive efficiency (108.5). Portland ranks 26th in net rating (-8.2). This should be a layup win for the Wolves, but their lack of rest means it might not be.

Minnesota is just 2-3 ATS without rest and 3-5-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage this season. However, Portland is 6-8 ATS with a rest advantage. The Timberwolves are a steady 27-24-2 ATS on the year but are only 14-15 ATS on the road. Portland is a bad 25-27 ATS this year and is 11-13 ATS at home.

Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers NBA Odds & Trends

DET: +425 | LAL: -600
DET +10.5: -110 | LAL -10.5: -110
Over 238.5: -105 | Under 238.5: -115
Game Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 1:30 a.m. ET

The Detroit Pistons will visit the Los Angeles Lakers on the late slate. Both squads are on the road tomorrow, with the Pistons visiting the Suns and the Lakers visiting the Jazz. The Lakers have been off for three days, giving them a one-day rest advantage over the Pistons, who visited the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday.

The Pistons have ruled out a few of their pieces, namely Isaiah Stewart and Quentin Grimes, while the Lakers are doing their standard thing of listing both Anthony Davis (questionable) and LeBron James (questionable) on the report. Max Christie, Cam Reddish, Jarred Vanderbilt and Gabe Vincent all remain out.

Still, despite Detroit’s bad roster and 29th-ranked net rating (-8.7), the club is still 26-25-1 ATS. Los Angeles is having a rough season, ranking 19th in net rating (-0.8), but is 25-30 ATS. The Lakers are a shaky 12-14 ATS at home but are a somewhat steadier 9-10 ATS as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Detroit is 14-11 ATS on the road (and, necessarily, as a road dog).

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NBA Picks Today: Tuesday, February 13

I’ve got one bet for Tuesday’s NBA slate out already. Give me the Thunder to cover the 2.5 for -110 on BetMGM. You’ll find the spread at 2.5 for -110 on Pinnacle as well.

Several books have the spread slanted toward Oklahoma City. Hard Rock lists the 2.5 for -115. DraftKings and FanDuel are both selling it for -112.

Scheduling-wise, the edge here is quite simple: Orlando’s got a game tomorrow; Oklahoma City doesn’t play again until after the All-Star Break.

If the Thunder get up big early, the Magic have an incentive not to push the issue. But if the Magic get up early, the Thunder have nothing to lose by trying to force a comeback. Look for the Thunder to enter the break with a big home win.

NBA Pick Today: OKC -2.5 -110 at MGM

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